Jaguars @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 4 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff78°F7 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

3-0 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

SF -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 21–24 SF

✗ SF (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -4.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -4.5

1 → JAX

CloseSF -3.5

1 pt toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -4.5 · closed SF -3.5 · moved 1 toward JAXmodel SF -2

model SF -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (156 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 36% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -4.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 3.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: JAX won 26–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3.1; 53.5 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	WSH vs PIT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total	-1.5	27–28	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1
SF WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	2-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
SF UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 138 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SF	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 3–5 SF SF leads · 8 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2023	San Francisco 49ers 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 3	SF -3	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX−2.1 →−0.6▲ 1.5#19

SF+0.9 →+2.3▲ 1.4#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

JAX

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

Even

+1.7 #2

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.3 #21

66 plays #7

Pace

Even

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	JAX off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #14	16.3 #2	SF
Yards / play	5.37 #13	4.40 #5	SF
EPA / play	+0.03 #14	−0.11 #4	SF
Success rate	45% #13	43% #15	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	SF off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #23	17.0 #5	JAX
Yards / play	5.36 #14	4.74 #8	JAX
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.15 #2	JAX
Success rate	50% #3	37% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	5.7 #10	9.0 #7	14.7 #9	3.3 #22	5.3 #22	8.7 #30
SF allowed	0.0 #1	6.7 #18	6.7 #3	3.3 #9	6.3 #14	9.7 #10

SF scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.3 #16	5.3 #25	9.7 #20	1.0 #31	9.0 #7	10.0 #16
JAX allowed	3.3 #7	2.0 #1	5.3 #2	4.7 #17	7.0 #19	11.7 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.