49ers @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff67°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

5-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

6-2 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

SF -3

✓ SF W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 26–23 JAX

✓ SF (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -3

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -3

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 3-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 34–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 3.2; 45.9 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	CIN @ TEN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–16	W	U42.5
Close	DET @ TB 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	20–6	W	U42.5
Close	LAR @ MIA 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–28	L	U46
Close	NO @ ATL 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3	21–16	W	U45.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Loose	BAL @ CLE 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	47–42	W	O45.5
Loose	BAL @ NO 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	27–13	W	U45.5
Loose	DAL @ TB 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-3	31–14	W	U45.5
Loose	LAC @ DEN 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3	13–28	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF ––LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3
JAX ––WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF ––OUO	2-1	67%	5-3
JAX ––OOU	2-1	67%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 33% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFlast 8	5-3 63%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%
JAXlast 8	6-2 75%	3-0 100%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 5–3 JAX SF leads · 8 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+7.9 →+4.6▼ 3.3#2

JAX+3.9 →+1.6▼ 2.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

JAX

Offense

◀ SF better

#16

Defense

Even

#10

+0.5 #9

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #6

60 plays #25

Pace

JAX faster ▶

66 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #4	19.5 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #2	5.21 #19	SF
EPA / play	+0.13 #3	−0.11 #6	Even
Success rate	50% #2	40% #7	SF

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	JAX off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #10	17.5 #4	SF
Yards / play	5.14 #18	5.05 #11	SF
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.07 #9	SF
Success rate	44% #12	42% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.0 #8	9.4 #5	15.4 #5	3.4 #21	8.5 #2	11.9 #7
JAX allowed	1.6 #2	5.0 #5	6.6 #2	5.6 #26	7.3 #27	12.9 #29

JAX scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.8 #16	7.1 #15	11.9 #12	4.8 #8	7.5 #6	12.3 #6
SF allowed	3.4 #8	7.1 #17	10.5 #11	3.8 #13	3.3 #1	7.0 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.