Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Los Angeles Chargers
Closing spread
DET -2.5
✓ DET W
Total
48
▲ Over · 79 pts
Model before kickoff
DET 28–25 LAC
✓ DET (59%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseDET -2.5
Total48
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseDET -2.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close48
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseDET -2.5
Total48
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
DET as a 2.5-point road favorite at LAC, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 8 went over the total.
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This game: DET won 41–38; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 48, as in 8 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Above normal · usually 54%
Favorite covered
8 of 1080%
Above normal · usually 45%
Went over
8 of 1080%
Above normal · usually 46%
Wins above normal, covers above normal, overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 2.8; 55.7 points a game (usually 46). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  LAR @  MIN2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-3 | 30–23 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close | LAR @  ARI2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 38–28 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close |  LAC @  PHI2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 27–24 | W | O49.5 |
| Very close |  DAL @ MIN2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2 | 40–3 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |  GB @ MIN2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form |
-1.5 | 31–34 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |  BAL @  NO2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & team ratings |
-3.5 | 27–13 | W | U45.5 |
| Very close | LAC @  CLE2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 30–28 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |  KC @ LAC2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-3 | 34–28 | W | O50 |
| Very close |  IND @ DET2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest |
-3.5 | 41–21 | W | O49 |
| Very close |  CIN @  TB2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 34–23 | W | O47.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Detroit Lions ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Both teams trending Under (6-2 combined)
Their games this season have mostly stayed under the total. · Backtest 2023–26: 18-19 (49%)
Detroit Lions on a cross-country trip
Detroit Lions cross 3 time zones (1,987 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Detroit Lions have 3 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETlast 8 | 6-2 75% | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% |
| LAClast 8 | 4-4 50% | 3-2 60% | 1-4 20% |
Recent meetings
The series
DET 3–4 LAC
LAC leads · 7 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
DET+1.7 →+3.4▲ 1.7#6
LAC−2.1 →+1.0▲ 3.1#12
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9
DETLonger bar = better
LAC#8
Offense
◀ DET better#12
#12
Defense
◀ DET better#23
0.0 #12
Turnovers
LAC better ▶+1.1 #2
69 plays #2
Pace
◀ DET faster64 plays #15
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When DET has the ball| DET off | LAC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 25.0 #9 | 21.8 #21 | DET |
| Yards / play | 5.65 #6 | 5.57 #26 | DET |
| EPA / play | +0.02 #10 | −0.02 #20 | DET |
| Success rate | 45% #7 | 44% #24 | DET |
When LAC has the ball| LAC off | DET def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 25.1 #8 | 20.6 #14 | LAC |
| Yards / play | 5.34 #11 | 5.10 #15 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.03 #8 | −0.09 #7 | Even |
| Success rate | 42% #19 | 43% #13 | DET |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
DET scoring against the LAC defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET scored | 6.4 #5 | 8.0 #8 | 14.4 #7 | 3.5 #22 | 7.1 #6 | 10.6 #15 |
| LAC allowed | 3.0 #5 | 8.4 #28 | 11.4 #12 | 3.4 #11 | 6.6 #22 | 10.0 #16 |
LAC scoring against the DET defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC scored | 7.8 #3 | 9.0 #6 | 16.8 #4 | 2.9 #27 | 5.5 #20 | 8.4 #25 |
| DET allowed | 3.0 #5 | 6.4 #12 | 9.4 #7 | 4.8 #20 | 5.8 #15 | 10.5 #21 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
LAC +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
86° · 3 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
DET13d bye
LAC6d
DET +7 days
Tempo
Fast 133 plays
slowavg 127fast
Travel
DET 1,987 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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