Rams @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

2-0 · Power #2

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

2-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

✓ PHI W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 21–24 PHI

✓ PHI (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -3.5

ClosePHI -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -3.5

no move

ClosePHI -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -3.5 · unchangedmodel PHI -2

model PHI -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (149 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -3.5

ClosePHI -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 33–26; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3.5; 50.9 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	KC vs NO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	26–13	W	U43.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	GB vs WSH 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	27–18	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—
PHI LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UO	1-1	50%	2-0
PHI UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 145 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%
PHI	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

LAR 5–12 PHI PHI leads · 17 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 19 2024	Los Angeles Rams 22 @ Philadelphia Eagles 28	PHI -7.5	LAR W
Nov 24 2024	Philadelphia Eagles 37 @ Los Angeles Rams 20	PHI -2.5	PHI W
Oct 8 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 23 @ Los Angeles Rams 14	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.2 →+1.8▲ 1.6#8

PHI+3.2 →+2.9▼ 0.3#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LAR

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

◀ LAR better

#17

Defense

◀ LAR better

#13

+0.5 #15

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+1.0 #5

58 plays #21

Pace

Even

60 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #13	18.5 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.34 #3	5.32 #18	LAR
EPA / play	+0.16 #7	−0.05 #8	Even
Success rate	46% #10	43% #15	LAR

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	PHI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #16	14.0 #1	LAR
Yards / play	4.32 #30	4.27 #3	LAR
EPA / play	+0.08 #13	−0.13 #3	LAR
Success rate	47% #8	38% #2	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

LAR scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	8.5	6.5	15.0
PHI allowed	3.5	11.5	15.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

PHI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	3.0	3.5	6.5
LAR allowed	1.5	9.5	11.0	1.5	1.5	3.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.