Eagles @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sun, Sep 14, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff93°F10 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

1-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

0-1 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

PHI -1.5

✓ PHI W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 23–21 KC

✓ PHI (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -1.5

ClosePHI -1.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -1.5

no move

ClosePHI -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -1.5 · unchangedmodel PHI -0.5

model PHI -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 56% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -1.5

ClosePHI -1.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 1.5-point road favorite at KC, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 20–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 2.2; 39.7 points a game (usually 42.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	LAC @ ATL 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-0.5	17–13	W	U47.5
Close	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
KC L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; KC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI U	0-1	0%	1-0
KC O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 50% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
KC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PHI 6–4 KC PHI leads · 10 games since 2001 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Feb 9 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 22 @ Philadelphia Eagles 40	KC -1.5	PHI W
Nov 20 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 21 @ Kansas City Chiefs 17	KC -2	PHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI+3.2 →+2.9▼ 0.3#2

KC+1.3 →+0.9▼ 0.4#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

PHI

Longer bar = better

#11

Offense

Even

#19

Defense

◀ PHI better

#29

+1.0 #6

Turnovers

◀ PHI better

0.0 #10

62 plays #14

Pace

◀ PHI faster

58 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #11	27.0 #25	PHI
Yards / play	4.87 #19	6.35 #28	PHI
EPA / play	+0.16 #9	+0.32 #31	PHI
Success rate	51% #3	58% #32	PHI

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #13	20.0 #18	KC
Yards / play	5.98 #8	5.48 #22	KC
EPA / play	+0.22 #5	+0.04 #16	KC
Success rate	47% #11	45% #21	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.