Chiefs @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 3 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff63°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

0-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

0-2 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

KC -5.5

✓ KC W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 25–20 NYG

✓ KC (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -6.5

CloseKC -5.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -6.5

1 → NYG

CloseKC -5.5

1 pt toward New York Giants

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -6.5 · closed KC -5.5 · moved 1 toward NYGmodel KC -5

model KC -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 55% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 37% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -6.5

CloseKC -5.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 5.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 22–9; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 5.3; 50.9 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ LV 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & total	-5.5	15–9	W	U43.5
Very close	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	30–10	W	U46.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	ARI @ CAR 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest	-5.5	30–36	L	O47.5
Close	IND @ NYG 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	33–45	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1
NYG LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OU	1-1	50%	0-2
NYG UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 51% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NYG	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 3–4 NYG NYG leads · 7 games since 2001 · KC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+1.3 →+1.0▼ 0.3#12

NYG−2.6 →−3.2▼ 0.6#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

NYG

#17

Offense

Even

#17

#24

Defense

◀ KC better

#29

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

NYG better ▶

0.0 #19

58 plays #23

Pace

NYG faster ▶

64 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #25	30.5 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.57 #11	6.15 #30	KC
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	+0.16 #28	KC
Success rate	43% #18	49% #30	KC

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: NYG offense

	NYG off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #18	23.5 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.80 #6	5.08 #15	NYG
EPA / play	0.00 #19	+0.16 #29	NYG
Success rate	40% #26	50% #31	NYG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 28 teams

KC scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	0.0	8.0	8.0	3.0	8.0	11.0
NYG allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	3.5	13.5	17.0

NYG scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.0	5.0	8.0	3.0	10.5	13.5
KC allowed	7.0	4.5	11.5	5.0	7.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.