Bengals @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

2-0 · Power #24

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

1-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

✓ MIN W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 21–23 MIN

✓ MIN (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -5.5

CloseMIN -3.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -5.5

2 → CIN

CloseMIN -3.5

2 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -5.5 · closed MIN -3.5 · moved 2 toward CINmodel CIN -5.5

model CIN -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (149 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -5.5

CloseMIN -3.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 48–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.6 against an average line of 2.8; 41.8 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Loose	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Loose	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Loose	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Loose	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Loose	TEN vs HOU 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	14–23	L	O36.5
Loose	CAR vs DAL 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar total & rest	-2.5	14–30	L	O41.5
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · loose	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Loose	DEN vs GB 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	19–17	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LW	1-1	50%	0-1	—
MIN WL	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UO	1-1	50%	2-0
MIN OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 145 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MIN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 4–3 MIN CIN leads · 7 games since 2005 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 16 2023	Minnesota Vikings 24 @ Cincinnati Bengals 27	CIN -3	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+0.5 →0.0▼ 0.5#18

MIN+1.0 →−0.8▼ 1.8#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CIN

Longer bar = better

MIN

#22

Offense

◀ CIN better

#28

#18

Defense

MIN better ▶

#13

+0.5 #9

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−1.5 #29

57 plays #23

Pace

◀ CIN faster

48 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	CIN off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #9	23.0 #17	CIN
Yards / play	4.31 #31	5.10 #15	MIN
EPA / play	−0.05 #23	−0.05 #9	MIN
Success rate	42% #23	41% #9	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	MIN off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #28	21.5 #16	CIN
Yards / play	4.76 #26	5.16 #16	CIN
EPA / play	−0.31 #32	+0.02 #19	CIN
Success rate	41% #25	45% #20	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

CIN scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	7.0	5.0	12.0	8.5	3.5	12.0
MIN allowed	6.5	3.0	9.5	5.0	8.5	13.5

MIN scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	0.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	10.5	10.5
CIN allowed	3.5	10.0	13.5	6.5	1.5	8.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.