Packers @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff78°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

2-0 · Power #11

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

0-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -7.5

✓ CLE W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 25–17 CLE

✗ GB (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -7.5

CloseGB -7.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -7.5

no move

CloseGB -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 3

Close40.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -7.5 · unchangedmodel GB -7.5 matches the line

model GB -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 46% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -7.5

CloseGB -7.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 7.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 13–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 40.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 6.2; 43.2 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR @ TEN 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	33–19	W	O40.5
Close	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	BUF @ NE 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	25–29	L	O39.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Loose	LAC @ LV 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	34–20	W	O41.5
Loose	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
CLE WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UU	0-2	0%	2-0
CLE UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
CLE	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 5–2 CLE GB leads · 7 games since 2001 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+2.2 →+3.7▲ 1.5#3

CLE−2.1 →−2.1–#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

CLE

Offense

◀ GB better

#28

Defense

◀ GB better

#13

+0.5 #13

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−2.0 #32

55 plays #26

Pace

CLE faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	29.0 #25	GB
Yards / play	6.09 #6	3.75 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.18 #4	+0.01 #18	GB
Success rate	48% #7	40% #8	Even

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	CLE off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #27	15.5 #4	GB
Yards / play	4.55 #28	3.66 #1	GB
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	−0.11 #5	GB
Success rate	38% #27	40% #7	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

GB scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	8.5	7.0	15.5	1.5	10.0	11.5
CLE allowed	5.0	7.0	12.0	6.5	10.5	17.0

CLE scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	0.0	6.5	6.5	6.5	3.5	10.0
GB allowed	0.0	3.0	3.0	1.5	11.0	12.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.