Commanders @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Thu, Sep 11, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff66°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

1-0 · Power #27

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

1-0 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -3.5

✓ GB W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 22–25 GB

✓ GB (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -3.5

no move

CloseGB -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -3.5 · unchangedmodel GB -2

model GB -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (142 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 3.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 27–18; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 3.4; 53.9 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB vs MIN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	29–31	L	O44.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Loose	MIN vs DET 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-1.5	29–31	L	O50.5
Loose	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Loose	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Loose	BAL vs MIA 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3.5	38–42	L	O43.5
Loose	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Loose	KC vs NO 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	26–13	W	U43.5
Loose	BAL vs BUF 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	35–10	W	U47.5
Loose	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH W	1-0	100%	—	—
GB W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH U	0-1	0%	1-0
GB U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 25. 51% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
GB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 4–9 GB GB leads · 13 games since 2001 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →+1.6▲ 0.9#7

GB+2.2 →+2.9▲ 0.7#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

WSH

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#10

Defense

◀ WSH better

#10

0.0 #16

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+1.0 #6

65 plays #10

Pace

◀ WSH faster

47 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #14	13.0 #8	GB
Yards / play	6.65 #2	3.78 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.19 #8	−0.06 #12	Even
Success rate	53% #2	42% #15	WSH

When GB has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	GB off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #7	6.0 #1	WSH
Yards / play	5.66 #10	3.73 #3	WSH
EPA / play	+0.20 #7	−0.24 #5	Even
Success rate	43% #14	34% #2	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.