Bills @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sun, Sep 14, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at New York Jets · Division game

Weather at kickoff83°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

1-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

0-1 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

✓ BUF W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 28–22 NYJ

✓ BUF (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -7.5

CloseBUF -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -7.5

2 → NYJ

CloseBUF -5.5

2 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -7.5 · closed BUF -5.5 · moved 2 toward NYJmodel BUF -5

model BUF -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (45 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -7.5

CloseBUF -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 5.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 30–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 4.4; 38.9 points a game (usually 45). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5
Loose	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Loose	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Loose	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Loose	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Loose	PHI @ SEA 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5	17–20	L	U46
Loose	BAL @ NYG 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	20–24	L	U45.5
Loose	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Loose	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF W	1-0	100%	—	—
NYJ W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF O	1-0	100%	1-0
NYJ O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 49% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
NYJ	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

BUF 29–25 NYJ BUF leads · 54 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 29 2024	New York Jets 14 @ Buffalo Bills 40	BUF -10.5	BUF W
Oct 14 2024	Buffalo Bills 23 @ New York Jets 20	BUF -1.5	BUF W
Nov 19 2023	New York Jets 6 @ Buffalo Bills 32	BUF -8.5	BUF W
Sep 11 2023	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New York Jets 22	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+2.9▲ 0.3#4

NYJ−1.0 →−0.8▲ 0.2#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BUF

Longer bar = better

NYJ

Offense

Even

#31

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#21

+1.0 #8

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−1.0 #28

78 plays #1

Pace

◀ BUF faster

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #1	34.0 #30	BUF
Yards / play	6.37 #2	5.02 #15	BUF
EPA / play	+0.23 #4	+0.17 #24	BUF
Success rate	49% #7	42% #13	BUF

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #5	40.0 #31	NYJ
Yards / play	6.35 #4	8.64 #32	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.21 #6	+0.39 #32	NYJ
Success rate	50% #6	50% #28	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.