Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Buffalo Bills
Closing spread
BAL -1.5
✓ BUF W
Total
51.5
▲ Over · 81 pts
Model before kickoff
BAL 25–24 BUF
✗ BAL (55%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBUF -1.5
CloseBAL -1.5
Total51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -1.5
3 → BAL
CloseBAL -1.5
3 pts toward Baltimore Ravens
Total
Open51.5
no move
Close51.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -1.5 · closed BAL -1.5 · moved 3 toward BALmodel BUF -1
model BUF -1
Opened 51.5 · unchangedmodel 49
model 49
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 57% (65 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBUF -1.5
CloseBAL -1.5
Total51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
BAL as a 1.5-point road favorite at BUF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: BUF won 41–40 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 1.9; 46.4 points a game (usually 42.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread |
-1.5 | 25–27 | L | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-1.5 | 28–25 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2 | 26–20 | W | U48.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 17 · close · similar team ratings & spread |
-0.5 | 25–27 | L | O48.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation |
-0.5 | 31–26 | W | O47.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1.5 | 6–16 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 1 · close |
-3.5 | 29–27 | L | O48.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread |
-1.5 | 6–31 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-3.5 | 47–9 | W | O52.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation |
-2.5 | 20–13 | W | U51.5 |
DAL
LAR
SEA
GB
MIN
ATL
TB
ARI
HOU
IND
NYJ
DETHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Baltimore Ravens ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Baltimore Ravens
3 pts (BUF -1.5 → BAL -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Baltimore Ravens have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 28 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–54.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
 BUF | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
BAL 7–7 BUF
Series tied · 14 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19 2024 | Baltimore Ravens 25 @ Buffalo Bills 27 | BAL -1.5 | BUF W |
| Sep 29 2024 | Buffalo Bills 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 35 | BAL -2.5 | BAL W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
BUF +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
57° · 7 mph
gusts 19 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BAL1st game
BUF1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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