Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New England Patriots
Closing spread
NE -2.5
✓ LV W
Total
44.5
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
LV 20–23 NE
✗ NE (58%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNE -2.5
CloseNE -2.5
Total45.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNE -2.5
no move
CloseNE -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open45.5
▼ 1
Close44.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NE -2.5 · unchangedmodel Pick’em
model Pick’em
Opened 45.5 · closed 44.5 · moved 1 downmodel 43
model 43
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (136 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNE -2.5
CloseNE -2.5
Total45.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
NE as a 2.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: LV won 20–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 61%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 45%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 2.6; 49.1 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-3.5 | 37–34 | L | O44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-2.5 | 21–16 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-1.5 | 29–9 | W | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 20–12 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 27–20 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 36–30 | W | O43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3 | 22–10 | W | U40.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 34–27 | W | O41.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 17–40 | L | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 26–24 | L | O42.5 |
JAX
IND
CHI
ARI
HOU
MIA
KC
BAL
ATL
TB
LAC
DEN
NOHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Las Vegas Raiders ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Las Vegas Raiders on a cross-country trip
Las Vegas Raiders cross 3 time zones (2,365 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Las Vegas Raiders have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 53% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 LV | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| NE | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
LV 4–8 NE
NE leads · 12 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 2023 | New England Patriots 17 @ Las Vegas Raiders 21 | LV -3.5 | LV W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NE +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
62° · 8 mph
gusts 16 mph · 0.075 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
LV1st game
NE1st game
Even
Travel
LV 2,365 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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