Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Washington Commanders · Division game
Closing spread
WSH -5.5
✓ WSH W
Total
45.5
▼ Under · 27 pts
Model before kickoff
NYG 21–26 WSH
✓ WSH (70%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWSH -6.5
CloseWSH -5.5
Total45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWSH -6.5
1 → NYG
CloseWSH -5.5
1 pt toward New York Giants
Total
Open45.5
no move
Close45.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WSH -6.5 · closed WSH -5.5 · moved 1 toward NYGmodel WSH -9
model WSH -9
Opened 45.5 · unchangedmodel 47
model 47
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (75 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 38% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWSH -6.5
CloseWSH -5.5
Total45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WSH as a 5.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: WSH won 21–6; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Above normal · usually 69%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 50%
Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 5.4; 47.9 points a game (usually 45.2). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & situation |
-4.5 | 47–10 | W | O46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total |
-5.5 | 42–19 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-6.5 | 30–12 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total |
-5.5 | 30–17 | W | O46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total |
-5.5 | 21–13 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread |
-6.5 | 32–26 | L | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-5.5 | 30–24 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation |
-6.5 | 19–13 | L | U45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation |
-4.5 | 23–20 | L | U45.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 1 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 32–19 | W | O43.5 |
BUF
JAX
TEN
MIN
CHI
ARI
NE
IND
MIA
NYJ
SF
DAL
HOUHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New York Giants ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward New York Giants
1 pt (WSH -6.5 → WSH -5.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
New York Giants have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYG | 1-9 10% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
| WSH | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 4 since 2023
NYG 32–21 WSH (2 tied)
NYG leads · 55 games since 1999
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 2024 | Washington Commanders 27 @ New York Giants 22 | WSH -3.5 | WSH W |
| Sep 15 2024 | New York Giants 18 @ Washington Commanders 21 | WSH -1.5 | WSH W |
| Nov 19 2023 | New York Giants 31 @ Washington Commanders 19 | WSH -7.5 | NYG W |
| Oct 22 2023 | Washington Commanders 7 @ New York Giants 14 | WSH -3.5 | NYG W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WSH +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
70° · 5 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NYG1st game
WSH1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
PHI
KC vs 
LAC
TB @ 
ATL
CIN @ 
CLE
LV @ 
NO
PIT @ 
CAR @ 
DEN