Bears @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sun, Sep 14, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

0-1 · Power #16

final

Final

Detroit Lions

0-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -6.5

✓ DET W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 20–27 DET

✓ DET (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -5.5

CloseDET -6.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -5.5

1 → DET

CloseDET -6.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -5.5 · closed DET -6.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel DET -7.5

model DET -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (92 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (63 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -5.5

CloseDET -6.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like DET as a 6.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 6, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 52–21; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 8 similar games. 73 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 8.

Favorite won

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

1 of 813%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 6.3; 52.9 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Loose	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Loose	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Loose	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Loose	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Loose	LAR vs ARI 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar spread & rest	-6.5	13–9	L	U48.5
Loose	BUF vs ARI 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar total	-6.5	34–28	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI L	0-1	0%	—	—
DET L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI O	1-0	100%	0-1
DET U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q3. Of 139 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
DET	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

CHI 28–26 DET CHI leads · 54 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 22 2024	Detroit Lions 34 @ Chicago Bears 17	DET -6.5	DET W
Nov 28 2024	Chicago Bears 20 @ Detroit Lions 23	DET -10	CHI W
Dec 10 2023	Detroit Lions 13 @ Chicago Bears 28	DET -3	CHI W
Nov 19 2023	Chicago Bears 26 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -8	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−1.4 →−1.2▲ 0.2#24

DET+2.8 →+2.1▼ 0.7#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CHI

Longer bar = better

DET

#19

Offense

◀ CHI better

#23

#16

Defense

◀ CHI better

#24

0.0 #18

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−1.0 #24

63 plays #12

Pace

Even

65 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #10	27.0 #26	CHI
Yards / play	5.03 #16	5.66 #23	CHI
EPA / play	−0.07 #23	+0.20 #26	Even
Success rate	38% #27	43% #19	DET

When DET has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	DET off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #24	27.0 #27	Even
Yards / play	3.78 #29	5.18 #19	CHI
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.18 #5	CHI
Success rate	42% #18	41% #11	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.