Jets @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff57°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

0-7 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

3-4 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 20–26 CIN

✗ CIN (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -4.5

CloseCIN -5.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -4.5

1 → CIN

CloseCIN -5.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -4.5 · closed CIN -5.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel CIN -2.5

model CIN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 53% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (86 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -4.5

CloseCIN -5.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 5.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 39–38 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 5; 47.5 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	27–21	W	O43.5
Close	CAR vs DAL 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	14–30	L	O41.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Close	LV vs TEN 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	20–10	W	U41.5
Close	JAX vs CLE 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	13–18	L	U41.5
Loose	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Loose	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WLLWL	3-4	43%	1-1	3-2
CIN LLLWW	3-4	43%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ OOOUU	4-3	57%	0-7
CIN OUOOO	5-2	71%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 182 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CIN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 8–5 CIN NYJ leads · 13 games since 2001 · NYJ has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.0 →−3.6▼ 2.6#28

CIN+0.5 →−2.9▼ 3.4#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NYJ

Longer bar = better

CIN

#27

Offense

Even

#26

#19

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#31

−1.3 #32

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

−0.3 #20

60 plays #22

Pace

◀ NYJ faster

57 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #27	30.6 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.53 #30	6.08 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #28	+0.16 #31	Even
Success rate	43% #22	50% #31	NYJ

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	CIN off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #26	26.1 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.69 #29	5.30 #14	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.09 #27	+0.10 #28	Even
Success rate	42% #23	40% #6	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.0 #27	3.1 #32	6.1 #32	3.1 #27	9.1 #5	12.3 #15
CIN allowed	6.0 #27	10.6 #31	16.6 #31	6.9 #27	7.1 #19	14.0 #26

CIN scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	2.4 #30	4.7 #25	7.1 #28	3.9 #22	8.4 #9	12.3 #15
NYJ allowed	5.6 #23	10.1 #29	15.7 #30	4.3 #14	6.1 #15	10.4 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.