Panthers @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff70°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

3-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

0-6 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

✓ CAR W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 21–22 NYJ

✗ NYJ (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -1.5

CloseNYJ -1.5

Total44.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYJ -1.5

no move

CloseNYJ -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▼ 5

Close39.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -1.5 · unchangedmodel NYJ -2

model NYJ -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 52% (91 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -1.5

CloseNYJ -1.5

Total44.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 1.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 13–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 2.5; 39.4 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Close	NE vs CAR 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	42–13	W	O42.5
Close	CAR vs DAL 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	14–30	L	O41.5
Loose	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Loose	SEA vs ATL 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	23–27	L	O43.5
Loose	NYG vs CHI 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	20–12	W	U39
Loose	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	16–17	L	U40
Loose	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	20–6	W	U39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR WWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	4-2
NYJ LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUOOO	4-2	67%	3-3
NYJ UOOOU	4-2	67%	0-6

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 57% of games with totals 36.5–42.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
NYJ	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 5–2 NYJ CAR leads · 7 games since 2001 · CAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−3.5 →−2.9▲ 0.6#26

NYJ−1.0 →−3.1▼ 2.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CAR

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#18

Offense

◀ CAR better

#24

#19

Defense

Even

#20

−0.7 #27

Turnovers

◀ CAR better

−1.2 #32

65 plays #5

Pace

◀ CAR faster

60 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #19	28.3 #28	CAR
Yards / play	5.13 #23	5.49 #20	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #21	+0.13 #28	CAR
Success rate	47% #10	41% #2	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: CAR defense

	NYJ off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #25	24.3 #21	Even
Yards / play	4.68 #30	5.59 #22	CAR
EPA / play	−0.07 #27	+0.08 #27	Even
Success rate	45% #15	41% #4	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.7 #22	3.8 #30	7.5 #28	4.3 #16	10.2 #3	14.5 #5
NYJ allowed	6.0 #24	10.7 #31	16.7 #30	4.5 #15	7.2 #19	11.7 #17

NYJ scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.5 #23	3.2 #31	6.7 #30	3.7 #23	10.2 #3	13.8 #8
CAR allowed	4.3 #15	12.7 #32	17.0 #31	3.5 #8	3.8 #4	7.3 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.