Eagles @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

4-2 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota Vikings

3-2 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

✓ PHI W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 24–21 MIN

✓ PHI (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -1.5

ClosePHI -2.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -1.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -2.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -1.5 · closed PHI -2.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel PHI -1.5

model PHI -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (81 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -1.5

ClosePHI -2.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 2.5-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 28–22; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 44.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 2.5; 39.5 points a game (usually 44). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Close	PIT @ NE 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	21–14	W	U44.5
Close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar team ratings	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI WWWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	3-3
MIN WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI UOOUO	3-3	50%	4-2
MIN OUOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 185 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MIN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PHI 10–4 MIN PHI leads · 14 games since 2001 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2023	Minnesota Vikings 28 @ Philadelphia Eagles 34	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI+3.2 →+1.6▼ 1.6#13

MIN+1.0 →+0.5▼ 0.5#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PHI

Longer bar = better

MIN

#22

Offense

MIN better ▶

#18

#17

Defense

MIN better ▶

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

◀ PHI better

−0.4 #23

59 plays #24

Pace

◀ PHI faster

57 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	PHI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #15	19.4 #5	MIN
Yards / play	4.68 #29	4.86 #8	MIN
EPA / play	0.00 #22	−0.13 #2	MIN
Success rate	43% #21	41% #8	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #13	23.8 #19	MIN
Yards / play	5.33 #20	5.36 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #26	+0.01 #15	PHI
Success rate	46% #13	45% #19	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #15	14.8 #3	5.7 #9	3.2 #32	8.8 #26
MIN allowed	5.4 #22	3.8 #2	9.2 #9	4.8 #21	5.4 #8	10.2 #8

MIN scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.8 #15	7.0 #12	11.8 #14	4.2 #18	8.6 #9	12.8 #13
PHI allowed	6.0 #24	7.0 #21	13.0 #26	4.7 #19	6.2 #14	10.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.