Saints @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff52°F13 mphgusts 31Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

1-5 · Power #23

final

Final

Chicago Bears

3-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

✓ CHI W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 20–23 CHI

✓ CHI (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -5.5

CloseCHI -3.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -5.5

2 → NO

CloseCHI -3.5

2 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -5.5 · closed CHI -3.5 · moved 2 toward NOmodel CHI -5

model CHI -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (168 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -5.5

CloseCHI -3.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 26–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 3.5; 48.3 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE vs CAR 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	42–13	W	O42.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	CHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	36–10	W	O39.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Close	WSH vs LV 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total	-2.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-4
CHI LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
CHI OOUOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CHI	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NO 11–6 CHI NO leads · 17 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2023	Chicago Bears 17 @ New Orleans Saints 24	NO -6.5	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−3.7▼ 2.1#31

CHI−1.4 →−1.1▲ 0.3#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

CHI

#25

Offense

CHI better ▶

#17

#20

Defense

◀ NO better

#24

+0.7 #8

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.6 #1

64 plays #8

Pace

◀ NO faster

61 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #29	28.2 #27	Even
Yards / play	4.77 #27	6.46 #32	NO
EPA / play	−0.06 #25	−0.01 #10	CHI
Success rate	44% #20	48% #28	NO

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #10	26.7 #25	CHI
Yards / play	5.53 #15	5.34 #13	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #19	+0.04 #21	Even
Success rate	43% #22	46% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	2.7 #27	8.2 #8	10.8 #22	2.7 #30	5.0 #26	7.7 #32
CHI allowed	4.8 #20	9.0 #27	13.8 #27	5.4 #23	9.0 #25	14.4 #28

CHI scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.4 #3	6.6 #17	14.0 #7	4.8 #13	6.4 #18	11.2 #17
NO allowed	10.8 #32	9.3 #28	20.2 #32	3.7 #10	2.8 #3	6.5 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.