Browns @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff54°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

2-5 · Power #29

final

Final

New England Patriots

5-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -6.5

✓ NE W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 16–23 NE

✓ NE (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -7.5

CloseNE -6.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -7.5

1 → CLE

CloseNE -6.5

1 pt toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open40.5

no move

Close40.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -7.5 · closed NE -6.5 · moved 1 toward CLEmodel NE -6

model NE -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (105 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 23% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -7.5

CloseNE -6.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 6.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NE won 32–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 40.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 6.6; 50.5 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Very close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Very close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Very close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Very close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Very close	DEN vs NYG 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	33–32	L	O40.5
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WLLLW	3-4	43%	0-3	2-4
NE LWWWW	5-2	71%	1-2	3-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE UUOUO	3-4	43%	2-5
NE UOUUO	3-4	43%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 136 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 2–11 NE NE leads · 13 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−2.1 →−2.0▲ 0.1#24

NE−2.3 →−0.1▲ 2.2#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CLE

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

NE better ▶

Defense

◀ CLE better

#17

0.0 #14

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #12

66 plays #4

Pace

◀ CLE faster

60 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	CLE off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	16.1 #30	19.0 #5	NE
Yards / play	4.12 #31	5.60 #23	NE
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	−0.01 #14	NE
Success rate	34% #32	47% #25	NE

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #8	21.7 #14	NE
Yards / play	5.72 #9	4.54 #3	CLE
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.09 #5	Even
Success rate	46% #10	38% #2	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	2.4 #30	4.7 #25	7.1 #28	4.7 #16	4.3 #27	9.0 #28
NE allowed	5.1 #20	5.3 #8	10.4 #16	3.3 #4	5.3 #9	8.6 #6

NE scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.6 #5	8.4 #5	15.0 #3	5.6 #13	5.3 #24	10.9 #20
CLE allowed	3.9 #13	6.0 #14	9.9 #11	4.9 #16	7.0 #18	11.9 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.