Commanders @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Mon, Oct 27, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff54°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

3-4 · Power #27

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

4-3 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -11.5

✓ KC W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 17–28 KC

✓ KC (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -9.5

CloseKC -11.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -9.5

2 → KC

CloseKC -11.5

2 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -9.5 · closed KC -11.5 · moved 2 toward KCmodel KC -11

model KC -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -9.5

CloseKC -11.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as an 11.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.6 against an average line of 11.4; 46.2 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5
Close	BAL vs CLE 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	41–17	W	O46.5
Close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & rest	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Loose	DET vs CHI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-10	23–20	L	U48.5
Loose	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Loose	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Loose	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & rest	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Loose	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-3	1-3
KC WWLWW	4-3	57%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOO	4-3	57%	3-4
KC UOOUU	3-4	43%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
KC	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 0–7 KC KC leads · 7 games since 2001 · KC has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →+0.4▼ 0.3#15

KC+1.3 →+4.0▲ 2.7#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WSH

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

KC better ▶

#21

Defense

KC better ▶

#11

−0.7 #29

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+0.7 #6

59 plays #22

Pace

KC faster ▶

65 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #11	17.7 #3	KC
Yards / play	5.83 #8	5.29 #13	WSH
EPA / play	+0.05 #13	−0.03 #9	Even
Success rate	47% #8	45% #17	WSH

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #8	24.3 #21	KC
Yards / play	5.71 #12	5.85 #26	KC
EPA / play	+0.17 #4	+0.05 #23	KC
Success rate	50% #2	43% #13	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.1 #26	8.1 #6	11.3 #18	6.7 #6	7.7 #11	14.4 #6
KC allowed	3.4 #8	4.6 #3	8.0 #5	3.9 #7	5.9 #11	9.7 #7

KC scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.7 #18	9.6 #3	13.3 #9	5.7 #12	7.6 #12	13.3 #10
WSH allowed	7.6 #30	5.9 #13	13.4 #25	5.3 #21	5.6 #10	10.9 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.