Chiefs @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

5-3 · Power #12

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

5-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -2.5

✓ BUF W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 25–23 BUF

✗ KC (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -1.5

CloseKC -2.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -1.5

1 → KC

CloseKC -2.5

1 pt toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -1.5 · closed KC -2.5 · moved 1 toward KCmodel BUF -1.5

model BUF -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (129 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (91 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -1.5

CloseKC -2.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 2.5-point road favorite at BUF, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 28–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.9; 51.9 points a game (usually 44). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL @ BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	25–27	L	O51.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	GB @ MIN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	25–27	L	O48.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Loose	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Loose	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWWW	5-3	63%	1-1	4-2
BUF LLLLW	3-4	43%	1-3	1-0

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; BUF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OOUUU	3-5	38%	5-3
BUF OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 49% of games with totals 50.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

KC 11–12 BUF BUF leads · 23 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 26 2024	Buffalo Bills 29 @ Kansas City Chiefs 32	KC -2.5	KC W
Nov 17 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 21 @ Buffalo Bills 30	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Jan 21 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -2.5	KC W
Dec 10 2023	Buffalo Bills 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 17	KC -2	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+1.3 →+4.7▲ 3.4#2

BUF+2.6 →+3.7▲ 1.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

BUF

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ KC better

#13

+0.6 #6

Turnovers

◀ KC better

+0.3 #12

65 plays #4

Pace

◀ KC faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #7	20.9 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #9	5.44 #19	KC
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	−0.03 #11	KC
Success rate	51% #2	43% #11	KC

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #4	16.4 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #2	5.25 #13	BUF
EPA / play	+0.17 #4	−0.05 #7	Even
Success rate	49% #4	44% #15	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.3 #24	9.3 #3	12.5 #11	6.8 #7	7.5 #10	14.3 #6
BUF allowed	4.9 #21	6.1 #16	11.0 #15	3.9 #9	6.0 #13	9.9 #8

BUF scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	6.9 #3	6.0 #23	12.9 #9	8.3 #1	8.4 #6	16.7 #1
KC allowed	3.0 #6	4.9 #4	7.9 #4	3.4 #4	5.1 #7	8.5 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.