Chiefs @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

5-4 · Power #12

final

Final

Denver Broncos

8-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -4.5

✓ DEN W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 23–19 DEN

✗ KC (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -3.5

CloseKC -4.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -3.5

1 → KC

CloseKC -4.5

1 pt toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -3.5 · closed KC -4.5 · moved 1 toward KCmodel KC -1.5

model KC -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 54% (79 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (100 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -3.5

CloseKC -4.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 4.5-point road favorite at DEN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 22–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 3.8; 51.2 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Very close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5
Close	PHI @ MIN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-2.5	28–22	W	O44.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LWWWL	5-4	56%	1-2	4-3
DEN LLWWL	4-6	40%	2-3	2-1

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; DEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OUUUU	3-6	33%	5-4
DEN UOOUU	3-7	30%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
DEN	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

KC 31–24 DEN KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 0 @ Denver Broncos 38	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Nov 10 2024	Denver Broncos 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 16	KC -7.5	DEN W
Oct 29 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 9 @ Denver Broncos 24	KC -7	DEN W
Oct 12 2023	Denver Broncos 8 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -9.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+1.3 →+4.3▲ 3.0#3

DEN+0.4 →+2.2▲ 1.8#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ KC better

#18

#13

Defense

DEN better ▶

+0.4 #10

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.4 #21

64 plays #7

Pace

◀ KC faster

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #9	17.3 #3	DEN
Yards / play	5.76 #9	4.34 #1	DEN
EPA / play	+0.16 #2	−0.11 #2	Even
Success rate	50% #3	36% #1	Even

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #17	17.7 #4	KC
Yards / play	5.30 #18	5.39 #18	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.02 #13	Even
Success rate	42% #24	46% #18	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	2.9 #30	9.7 #3	12.6 #10	6.0 #6	7.6 #12	13.6 #7
DEN allowed	4.4 #15	5.6 #8	10.0 #9	3.7 #10	3.6 #3	7.3 #1

DEN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.4 #15	6.9 #17	11.3 #16	2.6 #29	9.6 #4	12.2 #14
KC allowed	3.4 #4	5.9 #11	9.3 #7	3.8 #11	4.6 #5	8.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.