Colts @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff55°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

8-2 · Power #13

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

5-5 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -4.5

✓ IND W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 22–27 KC

✓ KC (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -3.5

CloseKC -4.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -3.5

1 → KC

CloseKC -4.5

1 pt toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -3.5 · closed KC -4.5 · moved 1 toward KCmodel KC -4

model KC -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (125 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (103 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -3.5

CloseKC -4.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 4.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 4.1; 51.3 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 4 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	55–23	W	O47.5
Close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	PHI vs GB 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	22–10	W	U45.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	LAR vs IND 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-3.5	27–20	W	U49.5
Close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND LWWLW	7-3	70%	2-2	2-1
KC WWWLL	5-5	50%	4-1	4-4

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OOOUO	6-4	60%	8-2
KC UUUUU	3-7	30%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
KC	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 12–6 KC IND leads · 18 games since 1999 · KC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.8 →+3.4▲ 4.2#7

KC+1.3 →+4.2▲ 2.9#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

IND

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ IND better

#13

Defense

Even

#15

+0.2 #12

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #10

62 plays #16

Pace

KC faster ▶

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #1	18.1 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.41 #1	5.42 #20	IND
EPA / play	+0.19 #1	−0.01 #14	IND
Success rate	51% #1	45% #21	IND

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #9	20.6 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.69 #9	5.18 #12	Even
EPA / play	+0.15 #2	−0.04 #8	KC
Success rate	49% #4	46% #22	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	7.2 #2	9.2 #3	16.4 #3	7.2 #2	7.9 #9	15.1 #1
KC allowed	3.7 #6	5.3 #5	9.0 #5	4.1 #13	5.0 #6	9.1 #7

KC scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	2.9 #30	9.0 #5	11.9 #15	6.1 #6	7.4 #13	13.5 #7
IND allowed	3.3 #3	6.1 #13	9.4 #8	4.5 #17	6.7 #16	11.2 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.