Browns @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

2-8 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-8 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

LV -3.5

✓ CLE W

Total

36.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 16–19 LV

✗ LV (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLV -3

CloseLV -3.5

Total37.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLV -3

0.5 → LV

CloseLV -3.5

0.5 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open37.5

▼ 1

Close36.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LV -3 · closed LV -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward LVmodel LV -2.5

model LV -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (189 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLV -3

CloseLV -3.5

Total37.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 3.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 24–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 36.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 3.6; 37.3 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	DAL vs NYG 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	27–20	W	O39.5
Close	TEN vs HOU 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	14–23	L	O36.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5
Close	CAR vs NO 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	7–17	L	U38.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	CAR vs DAL 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–30	L	O41.5
Close	LV vs TEN 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	20–10	W	U41.5
Close	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5
Loose	MIA vs NYJ 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & spread	-2.5	27–21	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWLLW	4-6	40%	0-5	3-5
LV WLWWL	4-6	40%	2-3	1-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE UOOOO	6-4	60%	2-8
LV UUOUO	4-6	40%	2-8

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 33.5–39.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
LV	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 7–8 LV LV leads · 15 games since 2000 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Cleveland Browns 16 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20	CLE -2.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−2.1 →−2.8▼ 0.7#25

LV−2.0 →−4.7▼ 2.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CLE

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

Even

#30

Defense

◀ CLE better

#21

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

◀ CLE better

−0.4 #23

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ CLE faster

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	CLE off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #29	25.3 #24	LV
Yards / play	4.05 #32	5.16 #11	LV
EPA / play	−0.19 #31	+0.04 #23	LV
Success rate	33% #32	47% #25	LV

When LV has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	LV off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #31	23.4 #18	CLE
Yards / play	4.73 #30	4.82 #5	CLE
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	−0.09 #4	CLE
Success rate	41% #30	39% #3	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.4 #27	5.6 #25	9.0 #27	3.3 #24	3.9 #31	7.2 #31
LV allowed	3.7 #7	9.4 #29	13.1 #24	7.0 #30	4.5 #5	11.5 #15

LV scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.9 #19	3.3 #32	7.2 #31	2.7 #30	5.0 #26	7.7 #30
CLE allowed	4.7 #20	5.8 #10	10.5 #14	5.5 #26	7.4 #20	12.9 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.