Jets @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff57°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

2-8 · Power #32

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

5-5 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -14.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 16–31 BAL

✓ BAL (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -14.5

CloseBAL -14.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -14.5

no move

CloseBAL -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -14.5 · unchangedmodel BAL -11

model BAL -11

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -14.5

CloseBAL -14.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 14.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 23–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 39%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 13.9; 41.1 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Close	LAR vs NO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5
Close	GB vs CAR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	13–16	L	U43.5
Close	BUF vs NE 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Loose	BUF vs NO 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread	-14.5	31–19	L	O48.5
Loose	BAL vs CLE 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-12.5	41–17	W	O46.5
Loose	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & total	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WLWWL	5-5	50%	2-2	5-3
BAL LWWWL	4-6	40%	2-3	4-4

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UUOOU	6-4	60%	2-8
BAL UOUUO	7-3	70%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BAL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 1–10 BAL BAL leads · 11 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.0 →−3.9▼ 2.9#28

BAL+3.6 →+2.0▼ 1.6#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NYJ

Longer bar = better

BAL

#25

Offense

BAL better ▶

#13

#19

Defense

Even

#21

−1.1 #32

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

−0.2 #18

59 plays #23

Pace

◀ NYJ faster

57 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #25	25.1 #23	Even
Yards / play	4.75 #29	5.52 #22	BAL
EPA / play	−0.06 #27	+0.03 #22	BAL
Success rate	44% #19	45% #17	Even

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #11	26.8 #27	BAL
Yards / play	5.69 #10	5.31 #14	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #17	+0.10 #26	BAL
Success rate	45% #15	42% #7	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.2 #17	3.8 #30	8.0 #29	3.2 #26	9.7 #2	12.9 #8
BAL allowed	4.3 #17	7.2 #20	11.5 #19	5.7 #26	7.9 #23	13.6 #26

BAL scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	3.9 #20	6.4 #21	10.3 #22	7.1 #3	7.8 #10	14.9 #2
NYJ allowed	5.6 #24	10.9 #31	16.5 #31	4.4 #16	5.9 #11	10.3 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.