Falcons @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sun, Nov 30, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff38°F7 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

4-7 · Power #20

final

Final

New York Jets

2-9 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -3

✓ NYJ W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 23–20 NYJ

✗ ATL (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenATL -3

CloseATL -3

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -3

no move

CloseATL -3

No change since the open

Total

Open38.5

no move

Close38.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -3 · unchangedmodel ATL -1

model ATL -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 67%, covered 56% (112 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenATL -3

CloseATL -3

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 3-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 38.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 3.5; 41.3 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Very close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Very close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Very close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	TEN @ JAX 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	13–20	L	U38.5
Close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWLLW	5-6	45%	3-2	1-5
NYJ LWWLW	6-5	55%	2-3	6-3

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOOU	5-6	45%	4-7
NYJ UOOUU	6-5	55%	2-9

Went over in Q4. Of 108 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–41.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NYJ	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ATL 5–2 NYJ ATL leads · 7 games since 2005 · NYJ has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 3 2023	Atlanta Falcons 13 @ New York Jets 8	ATL -2	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.4 →−1.1▼ 0.7#21

NYJ−1.0 →−3.7▼ 2.7#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ATL

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#20

Offense

◀ ATL better

#26

#15

Defense

Even

#18

+0.5 #6

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

−1.2 #32

61 plays #22

Pace

Even

59 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #26	26.5 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.45 #13	5.21 #13	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #24	+0.09 #26	Even
Success rate	44% #16	41% #6	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	NYJ off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #27	22.6 #14	ATL
Yards / play	4.76 #28	5.17 #10	ATL
EPA / play	−0.07 #27	0.00 #15	ATL
Success rate	43% #21	46% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.5 #8	6.1 #24	11.6 #17	2.7 #29	5.5 #22	8.3 #28
NYJ allowed	5.1 #22	10.2 #31	15.3 #30	5.3 #24	5.9 #11	11.2 #13

NYJ scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.8 #22	4.1 #29	7.9 #29	2.9 #28	9.1 #3	12.0 #13
ATL allowed	4.4 #17	6.6 #17	11.0 #16	4.7 #20	6.1 #12	10.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.