Bills @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Thu, Nov 20, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

7-3 · Power #4

final

Final

Houston Texans

5-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

✓ HOU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 25–21 HOU

✗ BUF (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -3.5

CloseBUF -4.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -3.5

1 → BUF

CloseBUF -4.5

1 pt toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -3.5 · closed BUF -4.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -1

model BUF -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (102 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -3.5

CloseBUF -4.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 4.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 23–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 4.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Close	KC @ DEN 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	19–22	L	U45.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5
Close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	BAL @ HOU 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	31–2	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWWLW	5-5	50%	2-2	3-5
HOU LWLWL	4-6	40%	3-2	0-3

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF UOUUO	5-5	50%	7-3
HOU OUUOU	3-7	30%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUF 6–8 HOU HOU leads · 14 games since 2002 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2024	Buffalo Bills 20 @ Houston Texans 23	HOU -1.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+3.6▲ 1.0#6

HOU+0.6 →+3.7▲ 3.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BUF

Longer bar = better

HOU

Offense

◀ BUF better

#24

#16

Defense

HOU better ▶

+0.1 #14

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.7 #6

62 plays #15

Pace

HOU faster ▶

65 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #5	16.3 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #2	4.57 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #2	−0.13 #1	Even
Success rate	49% #5	39% #2	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	HOU off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	22.9 #14	BUF
Yards / play	5.10 #25	5.56 #22	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #21	+0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	42% #27	43% #10	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	6.2 #6	7.0 #16	13.2 #8	7.5 #1	8.5 #7	16.0 #1
HOU allowed	4.4 #17	3.8 #1	8.2 #2	5.0 #18	3.1 #1	8.1 #4

HOU scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	2.9 #29	6.7 #18	9.6 #25	3.6 #23	8.8 #5	12.4 #13
BUF allowed	4.4 #17	8.2 #25	12.6 #23	3.3 #6	7.0 #18	10.3 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.