Jaguars @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

6-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

3-7 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

✓ JAX W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 24–23 ARI

✓ JAX (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -2.5

CloseJAX -1.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -2.5

1 → ARI

CloseJAX -1.5

1 pt toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -2.5 · closed JAX -1.5 · moved 1 toward ARImodel ARI -1

model ARI -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 55% (87 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (62 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -2.5

CloseJAX -1.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 1.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 27–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.2; 41.2 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC @ ATL 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-0.5	17–13	W	U47.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Very close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	16–33	L	O43.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LLLLW	5-5	50%	1-3	2-1
ARI WWWLL	5-5	50%	1-4	4-3

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUOOU	5-5	50%	6-4
ARI OOUOO	6-4	60%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 182 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ARI	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 3–4 ARI ARI leads · 7 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX−2.1 →−0.1▲ 2.0#16

ARI+0.1 →−0.6▼ 0.7#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

JAX

Longer bar = better

ARI

#18

Offense

◀ JAX better

#22

#14

Defense

◀ JAX better

#23

+0.8 #5

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

0.0 #14

66 plays #1

Pace

Even

65 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #13	25.6 #25	JAX
Yards / play	4.96 #27	5.35 #16	ARI
EPA / play	0.00 #19	+0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	45% #14	48% #29	JAX

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	ARI off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #19	22.6 #12	JAX
Yards / play	5.13 #23	5.38 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #22	−0.03 #10	JAX
Success rate	43% #22	44% #15	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	7.1 #17	11.1 #18	5.2 #12	7.0 #15	12.2 #12
ARI allowed	5.4 #25	7.5 #21	12.9 #23	3.2 #3	9.5 #28	12.7 #23

ARI scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.0 #13	7.1 #17	12.1 #13	5.5 #10	4.8 #30	10.3 #24
JAX allowed	3.7 #7	5.5 #8	9.2 #5	3.2 #3	9.6 #29	12.8 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.