49ers @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Arizona Cardinals · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

6-4 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

3-6 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

SF -3.5

✓ SF W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 25–22 ARI

✓ SF (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -2.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -2.5

1 → SF

CloseSF -3.5

1 pt toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -2.5 · closed SF -3.5 · moved 1 toward SFmodel SF -0.5

model SF -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (118 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -2.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 3.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SF won 41–22; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 2.8; 42 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Very close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Very close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Very close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Very close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LWLWL	5-5	50%	4-2	3-2
ARI LWWWL	5-4	56%	1-3	4-2

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OUUOO	6-4	60%	6-4
ARI OOOUO	5-4	56%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 127 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ARI	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

SF 29–22 ARI SF leads · 51 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2025	Arizona Cardinals 15 @ San Francisco 49ers 16	SF -1.5	ARI W
Jan 5 2024	San Francisco 49ers 24 @ Arizona Cardinals 47	ARI -4.5	ARI W
Oct 6 2024	Arizona Cardinals 24 @ San Francisco 49ers 23	SF -7.5	ARI W
Dec 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 45 @ Arizona Cardinals 29	SF -12	SF W
Oct 1 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 35	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+0.9–#15

ARI+0.1 →−0.5▼ 0.6#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

ARI

#13

Offense

◀ SF better

#24

#23

Defense

Even

#20

−0.8 #31

Turnovers

ARI better ▶

+0.3 #11

65 plays #3

Pace

Even

64 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #23	23.9 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #14	5.34 #17	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #12	+0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	49% #4	47% #27	SF

When ARI has the ball

Even matchup

	ARI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #20	23.0 #15	SF
Yards / play	4.92 #26	5.51 #21	SF
EPA / play	−0.01 #24	+0.08 #25	Even
Success rate	42% #25	49% #30	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	3.3 #26	7.6 #8	10.9 #19	3.8 #20	7.0 #16	10.8 #22
ARI allowed	4.6 #19	7.0 #21	11.6 #20	2.4 #1	9.9 #29	12.3 #21

ARI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.8 #14	7.6 #10	12.3 #12	6.1 #8	4.0 #31	10.1 #26
SF allowed	3.1 #4	8.0 #23	11.1 #17	5.7 #24	6.2 #12	11.9 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.