Commanders vs Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 9:30 AM ESTWeek 11 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

3-7 · Power #27

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

3-7 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

✓ MIA W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 23–25 MIA

✓ MIA (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -2.5

no move

CloseMIA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -2.5 · unchangedmodel WSH -1.5

model WSH -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like MIA as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against WSH, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 16–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 4 similar games. 29 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 2.5; 35 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIN vs PIT 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–24	L	O41.5
Loose	TB vs SEA 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	21–16	W	U45
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	35–7	W	U43.5
Loose	IND vs NE 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	10–6	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WSH LLLLL	3-7	30%	—	1-6
MIA WLWLW	5-5	50%	—	1-2

Venue/role: WSH neutral, as underdog; MIA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOO	6-4	60%	3-7
MIA OOOUU	7-3	70%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
MIA	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WSH 3–5 MIA MIA leads · 8 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 3 2023	Miami Dolphins 45 @ Washington Commanders 15	MIA -8.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →−2.0▼ 2.7#23

MIA0.0 →−2.7▼ 2.7#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WSH

Longer bar = better

MIA

#15

Offense

◀ WSH better

#22

#29

Defense

Even

#27

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

Even

−0.7 #29

58 plays #24

Pace

◀ WSH faster

56 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #22	25.6 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.62 #12	5.87 #27	WSH
EPA / play	+0.03 #15	+0.11 #27	WSH
Success rate	47% #9	47% #28	WSH

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #25	28.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	5.35 #16	6.37 #31	MIA
EPA / play	0.00 #19	+0.15 #30	MIA
Success rate	40% #29	47% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.5 #31	7.8 #9	10.3 #24	5.3 #14	6.7 #19	12.0 #14
MIA allowed	3.8 #11	6.7 #18	10.5 #13	6.3 #27	8.8 #27	15.1 #30

MIA scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.7 #20	7.6 #10	11.3 #15	2.7 #28	7.0 #14	9.7 #27
WSH allowed	7.4 #30	8.3 #26	15.7 #28	6.8 #29	5.5 #10	12.3 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.