Bills @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

6-2 · Power #4

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

2-7 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -8.5

✓ MIA W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 29–20 MIA

✗ BUF (78%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -9.5

CloseBUF -8.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -9.5

1 → MIA

CloseBUF -8.5

1 pt toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -9.5 · closed BUF -8.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel BUF -7.5

model BUF -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 44% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 42% (59 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -9.5

CloseBUF -8.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as an 8.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 30–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 7.9; 49.4 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Close	DET @ CHI 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	34–17	W	O47.5
Close	BUF @ CAR 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	40–9	W	O48.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	MIA @ WSH 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	45–15	W	O49.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Loose	WSH @ NO 2024 · Week 15 · loose	-7.5	20–19	L	U44.5
Loose	DET @ CIN 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-9.5	37–24	W	O48.5
Loose	PHI @ CHI 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-9	25–20	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LLLWW	4-4	50%	2-1	2-4
MIA LWLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUOU	4-4	50%	6-2
MIA OOOOU	7-2	78%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 27. 48% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

BUF 35–20 MIA BUF leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 18 2025	Miami Dolphins 21 @ Buffalo Bills 31	BUF -11.5	MIA W
Nov 3 2024	Miami Dolphins 27 @ Buffalo Bills 30	BUF -6.5	MIA W
Sep 12 2024	Buffalo Bills 31 @ Miami Dolphins 10	MIA -2.5	BUF W
Jan 7 2023	Buffalo Bills 21 @ Miami Dolphins 14	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Oct 1 2023	Miami Dolphins 20 @ Buffalo Bills 48	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+4.0▲ 1.4#3

MIA0.0 →−3.3▼ 3.3#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BUF

Longer bar = better

MIA

Offense

◀ BUF better

#25

#13

Defense

◀ BUF better

#29

+0.4 #11

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−0.9 #31

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ BUF faster

56 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #3	27.0 #26	BUF
Yards / play	6.14 #3	5.88 #28	BUF
EPA / play	+0.18 #2	+0.13 #30	BUF
Success rate	50% #3	48% #30	BUF

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	MIA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #26	20.9 #9	BUF
Yards / play	5.18 #20	5.42 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #25	−0.02 #12	BUF
Success rate	40% #30	43% #10	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	6.9 #4	7.0 #18	13.9 #8	8.1 #1	7.4 #11	15.5 #2
MIA allowed	4.2 #16	7.4 #22	11.7 #20	7.0 #30	8.3 #23	15.3 #30

MIA scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.3 #24	7.4 #15	10.8 #18	3.0 #27	6.2 #21	9.2 #27
BUF allowed	4.3 #17	7.0 #18	11.3 #17	3.4 #5	6.3 #13	9.6 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.