Giants @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff33°F15 mphgusts 36Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New York Giants

2-7 · Power #22

final

Final

Chicago Bears

5-3 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

✓ NYG W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 20–24 CHI

✓ CHI (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -3.5

CloseCHI -4.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -3.5

1 → CHI

CloseCHI -4.5

1 pt toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open48.5

▼ 4

Close44.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -3.5 · closed CHI -4.5 · moved 1 toward CHImodel CHI -3.5

model CHI -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (119 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (93 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -3.5

CloseCHI -4.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 4.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 4.9; 45 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	ATL vs MIA 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	SEA vs LAR 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	19–16	L	U43
Close	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Loose	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG LWWLL	4-5	44%	2-3	4-5
CHI WWWLW	5-3	63%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UOOOO	5-4	56%	2-7
CHI OOUOO	6-2	75%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYG 6–7 CHI CHI leads · 13 games since 2000 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−2.6 →−3.3▼ 0.7#28

CHI−1.4 →−0.7▲ 0.7#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NYG

Longer bar = better

CHI

#23

Offense

CHI better ▶

#28

Defense

Even

#27

−0.3 #18

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.6 #1

63 plays #12

Pace

CHI faster ▶

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Even matchup

	NYG off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #22	28.4 #29	NYG
Yards / play	5.09 #22	6.37 #31	NYG
EPA / play	−0.01 #23	+0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	42% #24	48% #28	Even

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #6	27.7 #28	CHI
Yards / play	5.92 #4	5.86 #27	CHI
EPA / play	+0.09 #9	+0.13 #29	CHI
Success rate	45% #14	48% #29	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	6.0 #8	5.0 #26	11.0 #17	3.7 #22	7.2 #12	10.9 #22
CHI allowed	4.3 #17	9.0 #27	13.3 #25	5.9 #24	9.3 #28	15.1 #28

CHI scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.6 #5	7.5 #14	14.1 #7	5.1 #16	7.6 #9	12.8 #11
NYG allowed	4.1 #12	8.6 #26	12.7 #24	3.4 #7	11.2 #31	14.7 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.