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NFL · 2025

NFL Week 11 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 11: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
15 finalFavorites 7-8 ATS4 upsetsO/U 6-9Model Favorite 11-4Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1515 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS7-847% covered
Upsets4outright
Over / Under6-940% over
Model Favorite11-473% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up4 all 4 final
Over1 25%Under3 75%
Moved down11 all 11 final
Over5 45%Under6 55%
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20252024–2026
Any move
6–460%
94–9849%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
3–0100%
43–4350%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
—
21–2744%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
—
7–750%
17–1652%
7+ pts
—
1–325%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Nov 13

1
Final · Division
New York Jets
2-7 · #32
14
New England Patriots
8-2 · #5
27
Spread
NE -12.5
✓ NE W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼2
▼ Under 41
Projected
15–27
✓ NE won
Trend: NE ATS ✓Trend: Under ✓ Model: NYJ by 5 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4

Sunday, Nov 16

13
Final · Neutral
Washington Commanders
3-7 · #27
13
Miami Dolphins
3-7 · #28
16
Spread
MIA -2.5
✓ MIA W ATS
Total
46.5 ▼1
▼ Under 29
Projected
23–25
✓ MIA won
Trend: MIA ATS ✓ Model: WSH by 4 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✗ Cover settled: OT
Final · Division
Carolina Panthers
5-5 · #26
30
Atlanta Falcons
3-6 · #20
27
Spread
ATL -4.5
✓ CAR W ATS
Total
41.5 ▼1
▲ Over 57 · Q4
Projected
19–23
✗ ATL lost
Trend: CAR ATS ✓ Model: ATL by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6-3 · #18
32
Buffalo Bills
6-3 · #4
44
Spread
BUF -6.5
✓ BUF W ATS
Total
44.5 ▼6
▲ Over 76 · Q3
Projected
19–25
✓ BUF won
Trend: Under ✗ Model: TB by 2 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Division
Houston Texans
4-5 · #3
16
Tennessee Titans
1-8 · #31
13
Spread
HOU -5.5
✓ TEN W ATS
Total
37.5 ▼1
▼ Under 29
Projected
23–17
✓ HOU won
Trend: TEN ATS ✓ Model: HOU by 5.5 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Chicago Bears
6-3 · #16
19
Minnesota Vikings
4-5 · #17
17
Spread
MIN -3
✓ CHI W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲2
▼ Under 36
Projected
22–25
✗ MIN lost
Trend: Over ✗Trend: CHI ATS ✓ Model: CHI by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Green Bay Packers
5-3-1 · #11
27
New York Giants
2-8 · #22
20
Spread
GB -7.5
✓ NYG W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼2
▲ Over 47 · Q4
Projected
23–15
✓ GB won
Trend: Under ✗Trend: NYG ATS ✓ Model: GB by 3 ✗ Model: Under 4.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Cincinnati Bengals
3-6 · #24
12
Pittsburgh Steelers
5-4 · #19
34
Spread
PIT -5.5
✓ PIT W ATS
Total
47.5 ▼3
▼ Under 46
Projected
21–26
✓ PIT won
Trend: Under ✓Trend: PIT ATS ✓ Model: CIN by 1 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Los Angeles Chargers
7-3 · #15
6
Jacksonville Jaguars
5-4 · #7
35
Spread
LAC -2.5
✓ JAX W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼2
▼ Under 41
Projected
23–20
✗ LAC lost
Trend: Under ✓ Model: LAC by 2 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Seattle Seahawks
7-2 · #1
19
Los Angeles Rams
7-2 · #2
21
Spread
LAR -3.5
✓ SEA W ATS
Total
49.5 ▲1
▼ Under 40
Projected
22–25
✓ LAR won
Trend: LAR ATS ✗ Model: SEA by 0.5 ✓ Model: Under 2.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Division
San Francisco 49ers
6-4 · #10
41
Arizona Cardinals
3-6 · #25
22
Spread
SF -3.5
✓ SF W ATS
Total
48.5 ▲1
▲ Over 63 · Q4
Projected
25–22
✓ SF won
Trend: SF ATS ✓ Model: ARI by 3 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Baltimore Ravens
4-5 · #14
23
Cleveland Browns
2-7 · #29
16
Spread
BAL -7.5
✓ CLE W ATS
Total
37.5 ▼4
▲ Over 39 · Q4
Projected
23–15
✓ BAL won
Trend: CLE ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: BAL by 0 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Kansas City Chiefs
5-4 · #12
19
Denver Broncos
8-2 · #8
22
Spread
KC -4.5
✓ DEN W ATS
Total
45.5 ▲1
▼ Under 41
Projected
23–19
✗ KC lost
Trend: KC ATS ✗ Model: DEN by 3 ✓ Model: Under 3.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Detroit Lions
6-3 · #6
9
Philadelphia Eagles
7-2 · #9
16
Spread
PHI -2.5
✓ PHI W ATS
Total
45.5 ▼2
▼ Under 25
Projected
22–24
✓ PHI won
Trend: Under ✓Trend: PHI ATS ✓ Model: DET by 4.5 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1

Monday, Nov 17

1
Final · Non-conf
Dallas Cowboys
3-5-1 · #21
33
Las Vegas Raiders
2-7 · #30
16
Spread
DAL -3.5
✓ DAL W ATS
Total
48.5 ▼1
▲ Over 49 · Q4
Projected
26–23
✓ DAL won
Trend: LV ATS ✗ Model: LV by 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
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StatusMatchupSpreadMoveTotalModelSignalDetails
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total