Broncos @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

6-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

3-4 · Power #3

final

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

✓ DEN W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 19–22 HOU

✗ HOU (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -1.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total38.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -1.5

4 → HOU

CloseHOU -2.5

4 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open38.5

▲ 3

Close41.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -1.5 · closed HOU -2.5 · moved 4 toward HOUmodel HOU -0.5

model HOU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (175 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 57% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -1.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total38.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 2.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 18–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 2.8; 42.1 points a game (usually 44). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	16–15	L	U43.5
Loose	WSH vs CHI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-1.5	18–15	W	U46.5
Loose	NE vs CIN 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	18–22	L	U41.5
Loose	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Loose	SEA vs TB 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	35–38	L	O45.5
Loose	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Loose	BAL vs DET 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	38–6	W	O43.5
Loose	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · loose	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Loose	PHI vs SF 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	31–7	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLLW	3-5	38%	1-2	1-1
HOU LWWLW	3-4	43%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUUOO	3-5	38%	6-2
HOU UUOOU	2-5	29%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 52% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
HOU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEN 7–4 HOU DEN leads · 11 games since 2004 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 3 2023	Denver Broncos 17 @ Houston Texans 22	HOU -3	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+0.4 →+2.6▲ 2.2#8

HOU+0.6 →+3.0▲ 2.4#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DEN

Longer bar = better

HOU

#14

Offense

◀ DEN better

#21

Defense

Even

−0.1 #16

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.6 #8

64 plays #7

Pace

◀ DEN faster

62 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	DEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #10	14.7 #1	HOU
Yards / play	5.57 #14	4.77 #5	HOU
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	−0.13 #1	HOU
Success rate	43% #23	40% #4	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	HOU off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #20	18.9 #5	DEN
Yards / play	5.27 #20	4.56 #1	DEN
EPA / play	+0.02 #17	−0.08 #5	DEN
Success rate	42% #25	38% #1	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.5 #12	6.9 #16	12.4 #12	2.9 #30	10.6 #3	13.5 #9
HOU allowed	4.4 #18	3.0 #1	7.4 #2	5.4 #21	1.9 #1	7.3 #1

HOU scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.7 #19	6.9 #17	10.6 #20	3.3 #27	8.0 #9	11.3 #20
DEN allowed	4.3 #17	5.9 #13	10.1 #13	4.3 #12	4.5 #6	8.8 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.