Jaguars @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-3 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-5 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

✓ LV W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 23–21 LV

✓ JAX (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -3.5

CloseJAX -1.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -3.5

2 → LV

CloseJAX -1.5

2 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -3.5 · closed JAX -1.5 · moved 2 toward LVmodel JAX -3.5

model JAX -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 57% (82 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -3.5

CloseJAX -1.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 1.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 30–29; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 44.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 44%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 2.3; 39.4 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU @ JAX 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Close	PHI @ KC 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total	-1.5	20–17	W	U46.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · loose	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Loose	LAC @ ATL 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & spread	-0.5	17–13	W	U47.5
Loose	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWWLL	4-3	57%	1-1	2-0
LV LLLWL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UOOUU	3-4	43%	4-3
LV OOUUU	2-5	29%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 200 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LV	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 6–4 LV JAX leads · 10 games since 2004 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 22 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 14 @ Las Vegas Raiders 19	LV -2.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX−2.1 →−1.0▲ 1.1#20

LV−2.0 →−4.2▼ 2.2#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

JAX

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

◀ JAX better

#30

#16

Defense

◀ JAX better

#20

+1.1 #2

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.7 #30

65 plays #3

Pace

◀ JAX faster

56 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #24	25.7 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #23	5.30 #14	LV
EPA / play	0.00 #21	+0.04 #22	Even
Success rate	44% #20	45% #20	Even

When LV has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	LV off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #31	22.1 #15	JAX
Yards / play	4.92 #27	5.52 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.18 #30	−0.03 #12	JAX
Success rate	40% #30	44% #14	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.3 #25	7.3 #15	10.6 #22	4.7 #17	5.6 #22	10.3 #23
LV allowed	4.9 #19	9.0 #27	13.9 #26	8.1 #32	3.7 #4	11.9 #19

LV scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.7 #20	3.4 #32	7.1 #30	3.4 #24	4.1 #30	7.6 #30
JAX allowed	4.9 #19	5.1 #7	10.0 #10	4.1 #12	8.0 #22	12.1 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.