Titans @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-6 · Power #31

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

6-1 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -14.5

✓ IND W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 16–31 IND

✓ IND (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -14.5

CloseIND -14.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -14.5

no move

CloseIND -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -14.5 · unchangedmodel IND -12

model IND -12

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -14.5

CloseIND -14.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 14.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 37%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.6 against an average line of 13.3; 47.8 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF vs NE 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	BUF vs NO 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	31–19	L	O48.5
Close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	GB vs CIN 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-13.5	27–18	L	O44.5
Close	BUF vs MIA 2025 · Week 3 · close	-11.5	31–21	L	O50.5
Close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Loose	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LLWLL	2-5	29%	2-2	2-5
IND WLWLW	5-2	71%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOUO	4-3	57%	1-6
IND OUUOO	4-3	57%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 144 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
IND	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

TEN 16–34 IND IND leads · 50 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2025	Indianapolis Colts 41 @ Tennessee Titans 20	IND -5.5	IND W
Dec 22 2024	Tennessee Titans 30 @ Indianapolis Colts 38	IND -4.5	IND W
Oct 13 2024	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Tennessee Titans 17	TEN -2.5	IND W
Dec 3 2023	Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Tennessee Titans 28	IND -1	IND W
Oct 8 2023	Tennessee Titans 16 @ Indianapolis Colts 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.8 →−6.2▼ 4.4#32

IND−0.8 →+2.6▲ 3.4#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TEN

Longer bar = better

IND

#32

Offense

IND better ▶

#24

Defense

IND better ▶

#18

−0.4 #23

Turnovers

IND better ▶

+1.0 #3

58 plays #25

Pace

IND faster ▶

60 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	TEN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	13.7 #32	20.0 #9	IND
Yards / play	4.07 #32	5.45 #21	IND
EPA / play	−0.23 #32	−0.02 #12	IND
Success rate	38% #31	48% #28	Even

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #1	27.4 #28	IND
Yards / play	6.35 #1	5.65 #24	IND
EPA / play	+0.22 #1	+0.10 #27	IND
Success rate	51% #1	44% #15	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	2.7 #30	4.0 #30	6.7 #32	2.3 #32	4.7 #27	7.0 #31
IND allowed	3.7 #12	4.3 #2	8.0 #4	6.0 #25	6.0 #12	12.0 #19

IND scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.0 #8	12.1 #2	18.1 #1	8.3 #1	6.7 #16	15.0 #4
TEN allowed	7.1 #30	6.3 #18	13.4 #25	6.9 #28	7.1 #20	14.0 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.