Saints @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

2-10 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-5 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

TB -7.5

✓ NO W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 18–26 TB

✗ TB (76%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -8.5

CloseTB -7.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -8.5

1 → NO

CloseTB -7.5

1 pt toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -8.5 · closed TB -7.5 · moved 1 toward NOmodel TB -9

model TB -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (98 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -8.5

CloseTB -7.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 7.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 24–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 41.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 7.4; 49.8 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Very close	ATL vs MIA 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Very close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Very close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Very close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Very close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5
Very close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Close	LAC vs LV 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-9.5	31–14	W	O40.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	23–6	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLWL–	3-8	27%	2-3	2-7
TB WLLLL	5-7	42%	1-4	2-3

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UUUUU	3-9	25%	2-10
TB UOOUU	6-6	50%	7-5

Went over in Q4. Of 171 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	2-8 20%
TB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NO 28–23 TB NO leads · 51 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ New Orleans Saints 3	TB -3.5	TB W
Jan 5 2024	New Orleans Saints 19 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27	TB -14.5	NO W
Oct 13 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51 @ New Orleans Saints 27	TB -3.5	TB W
Dec 31 2023	New Orleans Saints 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	NO W
Oct 1 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ New Orleans Saints 9	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−4.0▼ 2.4#30

TB+1.2 →+0.4▼ 0.8#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

#28

Offense

TB better ▶

#22

#17

Defense

◀ NO better

#21

−0.4 #26

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.8 #2

64 plays #10

Pace

Even

62 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	NO off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	15.2 #30	25.1 #23	TB
Yards / play	4.67 #29	5.72 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #28	−0.02 #13	TB
Success rate	42% #24	45% #22	Even

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #17	24.6 #22	TB
Yards / play	5.07 #23	5.16 #11	NO
EPA / play	−0.01 #20	−0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	41% #27	45% #19	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.6 #32	6.9 #15	8.5 #28	2.6 #30	4.1 #31	6.7 #32
TB allowed	6.0 #28	7.3 #19	13.3 #24	4.8 #19	7.0 #18	11.8 #20

TB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.8 #30	8.9 #5	11.7 #13	6.8 #4	4.8 #27	11.6 #16
NO allowed	7.7 #31	9.6 #29	17.3 #32	3.5 #6	3.8 #2	7.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.