Falcons @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Thu, Dec 11, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Weather at kickoff56°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

4-9 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-6 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

TB -6

✓ ATL W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 20–26 TB

✗ TB (70%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -5.5

CloseTB -6

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -5.5

0.5 → TB

CloseTB -6

0.5 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -5.5 · closed TB -6 · moved 0.5 toward TBmodel TB -5

model TB -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 74%, covered 54% (87 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -5.5

CloseTB -6

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 6-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 29–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 6.3; 53.8 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Very close	PHI vs CHI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	15–24	L	U43.5
Very close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Very close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Very close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLWLL	5-8	38%	3-3	4-2
TB LLLLL	5-8	38%	1-5	2-4

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOUOO	7-6	54%	4-9
TB OOUUO	7-6	54%	7-6

Went over in Q4. Of 208 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

ATL 25–25 TB Series tied · 50 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ Atlanta Falcons 20	ATL -1.5	TB W
Oct 27 2024	Atlanta Falcons 31 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26	ATL -0.5	ATL W
Oct 3 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 @ Atlanta Falcons 36	ATL -2.5	ATL W
Dec 10 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 @ Atlanta Falcons 25	ATL -1.5	TB W
Oct 22 2023	Atlanta Falcons 16 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.4 →−1.9▼ 1.5#22

TB+1.2 →+0.2▼ 1.0#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

ATL

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

◀ ATL better

#23

#18

Defense

Even

#20

+0.2 #11

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.7 #4

61 plays #19

Pace

TB faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #27	25.0 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #13	5.65 #25	ATL
EPA / play	−0.04 #26	−0.01 #14	TB
Success rate	44% #13	45% #19	ATL

When TB has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	TB off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #17	24.1 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #25	5.18 #12	ATL
EPA / play	−0.03 #23	+0.01 #18	ATL
Success rate	41% #28	46% #23	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.9 #13	5.9 #25	10.8 #21	3.1 #26	5.5 #26	8.5 #28
TB allowed	6.1 #28	6.7 #17	12.8 #21	5.2 #23	7.0 #20	12.2 #20

TB scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.1 #29	8.5 #6	11.5 #14	6.8 #4	4.7 #29	11.5 #16
ATL allowed	3.9 #10	6.4 #15	10.3 #15	5.8 #26	7.2 #22	13.1 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.