Falcons @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

5-9 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

3-11 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ ATL W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 25–22 ARI

✓ ATL (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARI -1.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARI -1.5

4 → ATL

CloseATL -2.5

4 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARI -1.5 · closed ATL -2.5 · moved 4 toward ATLmodel ARI -0.5

model ARI -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 52% (150 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 55% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARI -1.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 26–19; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 61%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 6.7 against an average line of 2.3; 42.5 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Very close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Very close	ATL @ SF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	10–20	L	U46.5
Close	CLE @ NO 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	SF @ ARI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	41–22	W	O48.5
Close	ARI @ SEA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-1.5	6–16	L	U46.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	25–24	L	P49
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	20–27	L	U49.5
Close	DAL @ CHI 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	14–31	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWLLW	6-8	43%	4-3	1-6
ARI LLWLL	6-8	43%	1-6	5-6

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OUOOO	8-6	57%	5-9
ARI OOUOO	9-5	64%	3-11

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
ARI	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ATL 11–5 ARI ATL leads · 16 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2023	Atlanta Falcons 23 @ Arizona Cardinals 25	ATL -2	ARI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.4 →−1.6▼ 1.2#22

ARI+0.1 →−1.5▼ 1.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ATL

Longer bar = better

ARI

#18

Offense

◀ ATL better

#22

#20

Defense

◀ ATL better

#27

+0.1 #10

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

−0.1 #16

62 plays #16

Pace

ARI faster ▶

65 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #26	27.7 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #11	5.64 #24	ATL
EPA / play	−0.02 #22	+0.06 #25	Even
Success rate	45% #14	48% #30	ATL

When ARI has the ball

Even matchup

	ARI off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #21	24.4 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #23	5.21 #12	ATL
EPA / play	−0.02 #23	+0.01 #20	Even
Success rate	44% #19	46% #24	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.6 #15	6.5 #19	11.1 #18	2.9 #29	6.1 #20	9.0 #29
ARI allowed	6.3 #30	7.7 #22	14.0 #27	4.8 #18	8.7 #28	13.5 #28

ARI scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.6 #15	6.5 #19	11.1 #18	4.9 #16	5.6 #27	10.5 #23
ATL allowed	4.1 #14	6.4 #14	10.5 #13	5.9 #27	7.3 #22	13.2 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.