Bills @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff28°F15 mphgusts 24DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

10-4 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

3-11 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

BUF -10.5

✓ CLE W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 26–15 CLE

✓ BUF (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -8.5

CloseBUF -10.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -8.5

2 → BUF

CloseBUF -10.5

2 pts toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -8.5 · closed BUF -10.5 · moved 2 toward BUFmodel BUF -10.5 matches the line

model BUF -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (61 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -8.5

CloseBUF -10.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 10.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 41.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 9.3; 48.1 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR @ CAR 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	28–31	L	O44.5
Close	DEN @ LV 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	24–17	L	O40.5
Loose	GB @ NYG 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	KC @ NE 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & season form	-10	27–17	P	O39.5
Loose	LAC @ TEN 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-9.5	27–20	L	O44.5
Loose	SEA @ TEN 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & rest	-11.5	30–24	L	O41.5
Loose	BUF @ CHI 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9	35–13	W	O40.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	DAL @ CAR 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-11	33–10	W	U43.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & season form	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WLWLW	7-7	50%	4-3	5-7
CLE WWLLL	5-9	36%	4-2	4-7

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUOO	7-7	50%	10-4
CLE OUUOU	7-7	50%	3-11

Went over in Q4. Of 185 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 7–5 CLE BUF leads · 12 games since 2004 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+3.9▲ 1.3#5

CLE−2.1 →−3.8▼ 1.7#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

BUF

Longer bar = better

CLE

Offense

◀ BUF better

#31

#18

Defense

CLE better ▶

0.0 #14

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−0.3 #21

63 plays #12

Pace

Even

62 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #4	23.7 #19	BUF
Yards / play	6.02 #5	4.69 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #3	−0.10 #2	Even
Success rate	48% #3	38% #2	Even

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	CLE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	16.1 #29	23.1 #17	BUF
Yards / play	4.28 #32	5.57 #23	BUF
EPA / play	−0.20 #31	+0.01 #19	BUF
Success rate	34% #32	43% #12	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.1 #10	7.0 #16	12.1 #11	7.8 #1	9.5 #1	17.3 #1
CLE allowed	5.9 #26	4.6 #3	10.4 #14	5.9 #26	7.4 #22	13.3 #26

CLE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.6 #25	5.6 #27	9.2 #27	2.6 #30	4.4 #32	6.9 #32
BUF allowed	4.9 #22	9.3 #28	14.1 #25	2.6 #1	6.4 #16	9.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.