Browns @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff6°F9 mphgusts 21DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

3-10 · Power #29

final

Final

Chicago Bears

9-4 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -7.5

✓ CHI W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 17–24 CHI

✓ CHI (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -7

CloseCHI -7.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -7

0.5 → CHI

CloseCHI -7.5

0.5 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open40.5

▼ 2

Close38.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -7 · closed CHI -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward CHImodel CHI -5

model CHI -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (100 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -7

CloseCHI -7.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 7.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 31–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 38.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 6.9; 47.3 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	20–24	L	O41.5
Very close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	23–9	W	U37.5
Close	DEN vs NYG 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	33–32	L	O40.5
Close	NE vs CLE 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	32–13	W	O40.5
Close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWWLL	5-8	38%	1-5	4-6
CHI LWWWL	8-5	62%	3-2	3-2

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	7-6	54%	3-10
CHI UUOUO	8-5	62%	9-4

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 57% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
CHI	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 3–5 CHI CHI leads · 8 games since 2001 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	Chicago Bears 17 @ Cleveland Browns 20	CLE -2.5	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−2.1 →−3.0▼ 0.9#27

CHI−1.4 →−0.2▲ 1.2#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

CLE

Longer bar = better

CHI

#31

Offense

CHI better ▶

#10

Defense

◀ CLE better

#25

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.3 #1

62 plays #14

Pace

CHI faster ▶

66 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	CLE off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #29	25.8 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.34 #31	6.12 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.18 #30	+0.01 #19	CHI
Success rate	34% #32	47% #26	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	23.2 #17	CHI
Yards / play	5.57 #11	4.61 #3	CLE
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.11 #3	CLE
Success rate	46% #12	37% #1	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.9 #22	6.0 #24	9.9 #24	2.5 #30	4.7 #30	7.2 #32
CHI allowed	3.4 #3	8.7 #26	12.1 #19	5.2 #22	8.5 #26	13.7 #29

CHI scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	5.7 #7	6.6 #18	12.3 #11	5.2 #11	8.2 #7	13.4 #6
CLE allowed	5.2 #24	4.9 #3	10.2 #13	5.3 #25	7.7 #24	13.0 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.