Packers @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff57°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

9-3-1 · Power #11

final

Final

Denver Broncos

11-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -1.5

✓ DEN W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 22–20 DEN

✗ GB (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -1.5

CloseGB -1.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -1.5

no move

CloseGB -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -1.5 · unchangedmodel GB -1

model GB -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 55% (94 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -1.5

CloseGB -1.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 1.5-point road favorite at DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 34–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 2.4; 48.5 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ LAC 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	19–22	L	U41.5
Very close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Very close	KC @ PIT 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	29–10	W	U45.5
Very close	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5
Close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Close	PHI @ MIN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	28–22	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLW–W	5-7	42%	1-4	5-7
DEN WLWLL	5-8	38%	3-3	3-1

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; DEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUOO	7-6	54%	9-3-1
DEN UUUOO	5-8	38%	11-2

Went over in Q3. Of 201 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	7-2-1 78%	3-6 33%	7-3 70%
DEN	10-0 100%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 4–4 DEN Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2023	Green Bay Packers 17 @ Denver Broncos 19	DEN -2.5	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+2.2 →+3.4▲ 1.2#7

DEN+0.4 →+2.2▲ 1.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ GB better

#14

Defense

DEN better ▶

+0.3 #8

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.2 #21

60 plays #22

Pace

DEN faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #10	18.1 #4	DEN
Yards / play	5.65 #8	4.48 #1	DEN
EPA / play	+0.16 #1	−0.08 #6	GB
Success rate	49% #2	37% #2	Even

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #15	19.0 #6	GB
Yards / play	5.34 #15	4.68 #5	GB
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	−0.01 #14	Even
Success rate	44% #16	43% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.2 #30	6.8 #16	10.0 #23	5.0 #14	9.5 #1	14.5 #2
DEN allowed	4.2 #15	5.1 #7	9.2 #8	3.9 #11	4.5 #4	8.4 #5

DEN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.6 #15	6.6 #18	11.2 #17	3.6 #22	8.3 #5	11.9 #13
GB allowed	1.2 #1	6.0 #11	7.2 #2	4.2 #13	7.4 #23	11.5 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.