Lions @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff66°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

8-5 · Power #6

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

10-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -5.5

✓ LAR W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 23–28 LAR

✓ LAR (68%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -4.5

CloseLAR -5.5

Total50.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -4.5

1 → LAR

CloseLAR -5.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open50.5

▲ 4

Close54.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -4.5 · closed LAR -5.5 · moved 1 toward LARmodel LAR -0.5

model LAR -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 49% (108 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (108 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -4.5

CloseLAR -5.5

Total50.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 5.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 41–34; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 4.2; 53.1 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs GB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	DET vs TB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	24–9	W	U54.5
Close	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	BAL vs DET 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	30–38	L	O53.5
Close	DET vs BUF 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	42–48	L	O55.5
Close	LAR vs TB 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Loose	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Loose	DET vs MIN 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	31–9	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WLL–W	7-5	58%	3-3	1-3
LAR WLWLW	9-4	69%	4-2	9-3

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUOOO	8-5	62%	8-5
LAR OUUOO	6-7	46%	10-3

Went over in Q3. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–57.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%
LAR	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DET 7–7 LAR Series tied · 14 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2024	Los Angeles Rams 20 @ Detroit Lions 26	DET -5.5	DET W
Jan 14 2023	Los Angeles Rams 23 @ Detroit Lions 24	DET -3	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+2.8 →+4.3▲ 1.5#4

LAR+0.2 →+5.6▲ 5.4#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

DET

Longer bar = better

LAR

Offense

Even

#12

Defense

LAR better ▶

+0.6 #6

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #3

61 plays #18

Pace

Even

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #1	17.5 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.18 #1	4.87 #6	DET
EPA / play	+0.11 #5	−0.10 #4	Even
Success rate	47% #7	42% #7	Even

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	23.4 #18	LAR
Yards / play	6.09 #3	5.21 #13	LAR
EPA / play	+0.14 #2	−0.03 #11	LAR
Success rate	52% #1	41% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	5.8 #8	9.5 #4	15.3 #5	5.2 #12	9.2 #3	14.5 #3
LAR allowed	3.6 #6	5.5 #10	9.2 #6	2.8 #3	5.2 #6	8.1 #2

LAR scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	7.7 #1	8.5 #5	16.2 #3	5.6 #9	7.3 #9	12.9 #9
DET allowed	5.6 #24	6.5 #16	12.1 #20	4.6 #15	6.7 #18	11.3 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.