Cardinals @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

3-10 · Power #25

final

Final

Houston Texans

8-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -10.5

✓ HOU W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 16–26 HOU

✓ HOU (82%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -7

CloseHOU -10.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -7

3.5 → HOU

CloseHOU -10.5

3.5 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -7 · closed HOU -10.5 · moved 3.5 toward HOUmodel HOU -5.5

model HOU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 53% (49 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -7

CloseHOU -10.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 10.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 40–20; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.1 against an average line of 10.7; 40.3 points a game (usually 46.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total	-9.5	23–14	L	U41.5
Close	NE vs NYJ 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form	-12.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Close	DEN vs KC 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-11.5	38–0	W	U40.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	SEA vs MIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	26–0	W	U42.5
Close	KC vs WSH 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-11.5	28–7	W	U48.5
Close	IND vs ARI 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	31–27	L	O46.5
Loose	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI LLLWL	6-7	46%	5-1	5-5
HOU WLWWW	7-6	54%	4-2	4-3

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI OOOUO	8-5	62%	3-10
HOU OUUUU	3-10	23%	8-5

Went over in Q3. Of 198 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
HOU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARI 3–4 HOU HOU leads · 7 games since 2005 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ Houston Texans 21	HOU -5.5	ARI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI+0.1 →−1.1▼ 1.2#19

HOU+0.6 →+4.4▲ 3.8#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

ARI

Longer bar = better

HOU

#22

Offense

Even

#24

#26

Defense

HOU better ▶

+0.1 #12

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.9 #2

65 plays #4

Pace

Even

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	ARI off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #21	16.0 #1	HOU
Yards / play	5.14 #22	4.64 #4	HOU
EPA / play	−0.02 #24	−0.15 #1	HOU
Success rate	44% #19	38% #3	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #20	26.8 #26	HOU
Yards / play	5.00 #26	5.58 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #19	+0.04 #24	HOU
Success rate	41% #29	48% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.9 #13	6.5 #22	11.4 #16	4.8 #16	5.5 #26	10.3 #24
HOU allowed	3.8 #7	4.2 #2	8.0 #3	5.2 #22	2.8 #1	8.0 #2

HOU scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	2.9 #30	7.5 #11	10.5 #22	3.2 #24	8.1 #8	11.3 #18
ARI allowed	5.5 #25	7.8 #23	13.3 #23	4.6 #15	8.6 #27	13.2 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.