Raiders @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-12 · Power #30

final

Final

Houston Texans

9-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -14.5

✓ LV W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 12–26 HOU

✓ HOU (90%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -12.5

CloseHOU -14.5

Total37.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -12.5

2 → HOU

CloseHOU -14.5

2 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open37.5

▲ 2

Close39.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -12.5 · closed HOU -14.5 · moved 2 toward HOUmodel HOU -13

model HOU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (63 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -12.5

CloseHOU -14.5

Total37.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 14.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 23–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 39.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 39%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 13.7; 39.7 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	GB vs CAR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	13–16	L	U43.5
Close	LAR vs NO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5
Close	SEA vs MIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	26–0	W	U42.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Loose	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Loose	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Loose	SF vs TEN 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & season form	-12.5	37–24	W	O44.5
Loose	IND vs TEN 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.5	38–14	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV LLLWL	5-9	36%	2-5	4-7
HOU LWWWW	8-6	57%	5-2	5-3

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV OUOOU	6-8	43%	2-12
HOU UUUUO	4-10	29%	9-5

Went over in Q4. Of 137 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
HOU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 5–9 HOU HOU leads · 14 games since 2004 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−2.0 →−6.1▼ 4.1#31

HOU+0.6 →+4.9▲ 4.3#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

HOU

#31

Offense

HOU better ▶

#22

Defense

HOU better ▶

−0.3 #25

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+1.0 #2

56 plays #32

Pace

HOU faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	LV off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	16.3 #1	HOU
Yards / play	4.38 #30	4.66 #2	HOU
EPA / play	−0.21 #32	−0.14 #1	HOU
Success rate	39% #30	39% #3	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #18	25.9 #25	HOU
Yards / play	5.09 #24	5.22 #13	LV
EPA / play	+0.01 #17	+0.06 #24	HOU
Success rate	41% #29	47% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.3 #29	3.1 #32	6.4 #32	1.9 #31	5.3 #28	7.2 #31
HOU allowed	3.6 #5	4.4 #1	7.9 #3	5.3 #22	3.1 #1	8.4 #2

HOU scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.9 #24	7.4 #11	11.4 #18	3.5 #24	8.2 #4	11.7 #14
LV allowed	5.1 #23	7.9 #23	13.1 #22	7.0 #30	5.4 #6	12.4 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.