Jaguars @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff58°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

10-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Denver Broncos

12-2 · Power #8

final

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 21–24 DEN

✗ DEN (62%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -2.5

CloseDEN -3.5

Total43.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -2.5

1 → DEN

CloseDEN -3.5

1 pt toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open43.5

▲ 3

Close46.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -2.5 · closed DEN -3.5 · moved 1 toward DENmodel DEN -2.5

model DEN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (197 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -2.5

CloseDEN -3.5

Total43.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 3.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 34–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 3.3; 53.8 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Very close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Very close	SEA vs TB 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	35–38	L	O45.5
Close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Close	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWWWW	9-5	64%	3-3	4-4
DEN LWLLW	6-8	43%	4-3	2-7

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UOUOO	8-6	57%	10-4
DEN UUOOO	6-8	43%	12-2

Went over in Q3. Of 198 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DEN	10-0 100%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 7–6 DEN JAX leads · 13 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX−2.1 →+1.7▲ 3.8#12

DEN+0.4 →+2.4▲ 2.0#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

JAX

Longer bar = better

DEN

#14

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

DEN better ▶

+0.7 #4

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.1 #18

64 plays #9

Pace

Even

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	JAX off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #8	18.6 #3	DEN
Yards / play	5.23 #19	4.57 #1	DEN
EPA / play	+0.02 #15	−0.07 #8	DEN
Success rate	45% #13	38% #1	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	DEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #12	20.9 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #15	5.00 #8	JAX
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	−0.09 #3	JAX
Success rate	44% #16	42% #8	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	5.9 #8	8.3 #7	14.1 #7	5.4 #10	6.6 #17	12.0 #13
DEN allowed	4.1 #13	5.6 #8	9.7 #8	4.1 #11	4.4 #3	8.5 #3

DEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.3 #18	7.1 #16	11.4 #16	4.3 #22	8.2 #4	12.5 #10
JAX allowed	4.4 #18	4.9 #3	9.2 #6	2.7 #2	8.5 #27	11.2 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.