Broncos @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Thu, Dec 25, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff63°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

12-3 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

6-9 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

DEN -13.5

✓ KC W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 27–15 KC

✓ DEN (86%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -5.5

CloseDEN -13.5

Total39.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WLLWL	6-9	40%	2-4	2-8
KC L–LLL	5-9	36%	4-4	1-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; KC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOOO	7-8	47%	12-3
KC UOUUU	4-11	27%	6-9

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
KC	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DEN 24–31 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2025	Kansas City Chiefs 19 @ Denver Broncos 22	KC -4.5	DEN W
Jan 5 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 0 @ Denver Broncos 38	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Nov 10 2024	Denver Broncos 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 16	KC -7.5	DEN W
Oct 29 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 9 @ Denver Broncos 24	KC -7	DEN W
Oct 12 2023	Denver Broncos 8 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -9.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+0.4 →+2.0▲ 1.6#11

KC+1.3 →+2.3▲ 1.0#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DEN

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

◀ DEN better

#13

−0.3 #23

Turnovers

KC better ▶

−0.1 #17

64 plays #7

Pace

Even

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #13	19.6 #4	KC
Yards / play	5.48 #13	5.37 #16	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	+0.01 #15	Even
Success rate	44% #16	44% #17	Even

When KC has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	KC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	19.7 #5	DEN
Yards / play	5.38 #16	4.60 #1	DEN
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.06 #9	Even
Success rate	46% #9	38% #1	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.0 #22	7.3 #14	11.3 #19	4.5 #20	7.9 #8	12.3 #11
KC allowed	3.8 #9	6.2 #12	10.0 #9	4.2 #12	5.4 #6	9.6 #8

KC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.3 #28	7.4 #12	10.7 #22	4.9 #15	6.6 #15	11.5 #17
DEN allowed	4.3 #15	5.9 #9	10.2 #11	4.8 #18	4.3 #3	9.1 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.