Cowboys @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Thu, Dec 25, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Washington Commanders · Division game

Weather at kickoff51°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

6-8-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

4-11 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

DAL -8.5

✓ WSH W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 30–22 WSH

✓ DAL (77%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -3

CloseDAL -8.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDAL -3

5.5 → DAL

CloseDAL -8.5

5.5 pts toward Dallas Cowboys

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -3 · closed DAL -8.5 · moved 5.5 toward DALmodel DAL -6

model DAL -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 43% (58 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 35% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -3

CloseDAL -8.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like DAL as an 8.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DAL won 30–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 53 points went over 50.5, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12 against an average line of 7.2; 57.3 points a game (usually 46.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Loose	DET @ WSH 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	44–22	W	O48.5
Loose	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & rest	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL W–LLL	6-8	43%	3-4	2-6
WSH LWLWL	5-10	33%	3-4	3-9

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UOOOO	11-4	73%	6-8-1
WSH UOUOO	9-6	60%	4-11

Went over in Q4. Of 90 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	8-2 80%
WSH	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DAL 39–16 WSH DAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2025	Washington Commanders 22 @ Dallas Cowboys 44	DAL -2.5	DAL W
Jan 5 2024	Washington Commanders 23 @ Dallas Cowboys 19	WSH -7.5	DAL W
Nov 24 2024	Dallas Cowboys 34 @ Washington Commanders 26	WSH -10.5	DAL W
Jan 7 2023	Dallas Cowboys 38 @ Washington Commanders 10	DAL -13	DAL W
Nov 23 2023	Washington Commanders 10 @ Dallas Cowboys 45	DAL -13	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−1.0 →−1.1▼ 0.1#20

WSH+0.7 →−3.2▼ 3.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DAL

Longer bar = better

WSH

Offense

◀ DAL better

#17

#31

Defense

Even

#29

−0.5 #29

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #30

65 plays #2

Pace

◀ DAL faster

59 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #5	26.9 #27	DAL
Yards / play	6.02 #4	6.13 #31	DAL
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	+0.15 #30	DAL
Success rate	47% #7	48% #27	DAL

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #24	30.3 #31	WSH
Yards / play	5.44 #15	6.11 #30	WSH
EPA / play	0.00 #17	+0.17 #32	WSH
Success rate	46% #10	49% #31	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	4.2 #18	11.5 #1	15.7 #3	5.7 #9	6.5 #17	12.2 #13
WSH allowed	6.3 #29	7.3 #19	13.6 #23	6.6 #29	6.1 #10	12.7 #24

WSH scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.3 #31	7.6 #10	9.9 #24	4.5 #20	5.9 #23	10.3 #24
DAL allowed	8.2 #32	8.3 #27	16.5 #32	4.5 #15	9.1 #29	13.5 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.