Eagles @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sun, Dec 28, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff38°F6 mphWet0.1 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

10-5 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo Bills

11-4 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

✓ PHI W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 21–25 BUF

✗ BUF (63%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -3.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -3

0.5 → BUF

CloseBUF -3.5

0.5 pts toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -3 · closed BUF -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward BUFmodel BUF -4

model BUF -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (200 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 26% (23 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -3.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 3.5-point home favorite against PHI, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 13–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 3.6; 47.7 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	IND vs HOU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	16–20	L	U43.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	9-6	60%	5-3	1-0
BUF LWLWL	7-8	47%	3-4	5-8

Venue/role: PHI away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI UUUUO	6-9	40%	10-5
BUF UUOOO	8-7	53%	11-4

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PHI 6–2 BUF PHI leads · 8 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2023	Buffalo Bills 34 @ Philadelphia Eagles 37	PHI -2.5	PHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI+3.2 →+2.7▼ 0.5#7

BUF+2.6 →+3.7▲ 1.1#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PHI

Longer bar = better

BUF

#16

Offense

BUF better ▶

Defense

◀ PHI better

#16

+0.3 #7

Turnovers

◀ PHI better

+0.1 #11

60 plays #24

Pace

BUF faster ▶

62 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #16	22.9 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #16	5.50 #21	PHI
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	0.00 #14	Even
Success rate	44% #20	44% #12	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #3	19.3 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #5	5.02 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #3	−0.08 #6	Even
Success rate	48% #3	42% #8	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.4 #3	6.3 #24	12.7 #9	4.7 #17	5.9 #24	10.5 #22
BUF allowed	5.0 #22	8.9 #28	13.9 #26	2.9 #1	6.2 #10	9.1 #4

BUF scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.2 #9	7.4 #12	12.6 #10	7.5 #2	8.9 #2	16.3 #1
PHI allowed	4.2 #17	4.9 #4	9.1 #5	3.4 #5	6.5 #18	9.9 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.