Jets @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff26°F10 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New York Jets

3-13 · Power #32

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

11-5 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -13.5

✓ BUF W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 16–30 BUF

✓ BUF (89%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -12.5

CloseBUF -13.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -12.5

1 → BUF

CloseBUF -13.5

1 pt toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open39.5

no move

Close39.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -12.5 · closed BUF -13.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -15

model BUF -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (119 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -12.5

CloseBUF -13.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 13.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 35–8; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 39.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 13.8; 39.1 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Very close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	HOU vs LV 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	23–21	L	O39.5
Close	GB vs CAR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	13–16	L	U43.5
Close	SF vs TEN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	37–24	W	O44.5
Close	SEA vs MIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	26–0	W	U42.5
Close	BAL vs NYJ 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	23–10	L	U44.5
Close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Close	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Close	LAR vs NO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WLLLL	7-9	44%	3-4	7-7
BUF WLWLL	7-9	44%	3-5	5-9

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ OOOUO	10-6	63%	3-13
BUF UOOOU	8-8	50%	11-5

Went over in Q4. Of 143 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NYJ 25–29 BUF BUF leads · 54 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2025	Buffalo Bills 30 @ New York Jets 10	BUF -5.5	BUF W
Dec 29 2024	New York Jets 14 @ Buffalo Bills 40	BUF -10.5	BUF W
Oct 14 2024	Buffalo Bills 23 @ New York Jets 20	BUF -1.5	BUF W
Nov 19 2023	New York Jets 6 @ Buffalo Bills 32	BUF -8.5	BUF W
Sep 11 2023	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New York Jets 22	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.0 →−6.3▼ 5.3#31

BUF+2.6 →+3.9▲ 1.3#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

NYJ

Longer bar = better

BUF

#29

Offense

BUF better ▶

#24

Defense

BUF better ▶

#14

−1.2 #32

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+0.1 #13

60 plays #20

Pace

BUF faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	NYJ off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #28	22.3 #12	BUF
Yards / play	4.52 #29	5.38 #18	BUF
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	0.00 #13	BUF
Success rate	41% #29	43% #12	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #6	29.3 #30	BUF
Yards / play	5.87 #6	5.53 #21	BUF
EPA / play	+0.12 #4	+0.13 #29	BUF
Success rate	48% #5	44% #16	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.7 #27	3.8 #31	7.5 #31	2.6 #30	8.1 #4	10.8 #20
BUF allowed	5.1 #22	8.7 #27	13.8 #25	2.7 #1	5.8 #9	8.5 #2

BUF scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.9 #13	6.9 #17	11.8 #15	7.0 #3	9.1 #2	16.1 #1
NYJ allowed	6.8 #30	10.4 #32	17.1 #32	5.8 #24	6.4 #14	12.1 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.